Voting by the Baseball Writers Association members has been completed for the 2010 induction of players into the Baseball Hall of Fame.  The results will be announced this Wednesday.  The outstanding former second baseman, Robbie Alomar, is on the ballot for the first time. Alomar’s story of redemption in the face of a personal and public lapse is a lesson for Tiger Woods.

        Baseball fans of a certain age may recall that on a July night in 1996, player Alomar and home plate

umpire John Hirschbeck argued heatedly over balls and strike calls.  Alomar expectorated in Hirschbeck’s face and later said he did so because the ump had spit out a homosexual reference in Alomar’s direction.  Of course, the media made way more of the incident than either of the two principals did, adding for additional color an alleged comment that Alomar made about Hirschbeck’s sons, who suffered at the time from a rare and often fatal muscle disease.

        Alomar was quick to apologize and unequivocal about his being at fault. “Sometimes, we as human beings, we do stupid things. I regret doing that.”  Hirschbeck personally and publicly forgave Alomar and the incident was largely forgotten.

        Alomar was suspended for five games.  The player’s team at the time, the Baltimore Orioles, offered to pay him his salary for the missed games, although they were not required to do so.   Alomar asked that his salary for the week – he recalls it was around $250,000 – be directed toward an organization seeking a cure for ALD, the disease that afflicted the Hirschbeck boys.  Orioles owner Peter Angelos matched the amount.

        In listening to Alomar talk about the incident on the radio today and about how he and Hirschbeck have become close friends, I couldn’t help but contrast Alomar’s handling of his lapse with Tiger Woods’ own response.  In the days after his car accident and subsequent exposure of marital infidelities, Woods and his team let the story get way ahead of them.  They made a lot of stupid moves, but the dumbest was to announce Woods’ leave of absence from the foundation that bears the golfer’s name.

        It isn’t as if he’s just a spokesman for the Tiger Woods Foundation.  HIS NAME IS ON THE LETTERHEAD.  Hello.  So what if he can’t make public appearances in behalf of the group.  He can go into the office, sign a few checks, do a little filing, and meet with some kids.

        In the face of humiliation, Tiger Woods could stand to show some humility.

 

Footnote:  Mark McGwire is again on the Hall of Fame ballot.  McGwire, the former home run champ, has never admitted publicly that he used steroids –- he ducked an admission at a Congressional hearing -- but the court of public opinion believes he did.  By remaining silent, he has validated the verdict. McGwire has little chance of being elected on Wednesday.  Most baseball aficionados expect Robbie Alomar to be voted in.

        One thing you can bet on at the end of every year is that the prognosticators will come out of the woodwork.  And many of us will take those predictions as a hint that it might be time to sell or buy a home, or both.  With the explosive growth of the blogosphere and the fundamental importance of the housing market to the overall economy, there is no shortage of predictions online about where the market is headed in 2010.  And most of those predictions are not too rosy…

 

John Mulkey, who goes by the handle “Housing Guru,” has been studying his local Georgia and national real estate markets for three decades.  He predicts that home prices will stabilize in some areas but that continuing

foreclosures and short sales will account for 40% of all sales over the next 30 – 36 months and cause continuing declines in many areas “for another 2 – 4 years.”  He does not see prices returning to 05/06 levels for at least another decade.  Although Mulkey believes that to ensure continuing economic recovery, the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near-term, he does believe that inflation poses such a threat that there will be little choice but for interest rates to rise by 2012.  That will have a negative affect on home sales in succeeding years.  Finally, the Guru anticipates a chaotic year in politics –- we agree with the inevitability of that prediction –- in which continuing partisanship will further unsettle the housing market and economy in general.  “There’s little remaining in their [politicians’] arsenal that can have a significant impact” on the economy,” Mulkey concludes. The full text of his comments can be found by clicking here.

 

CNBC real estate reporter Diana Olick at CNBC did a nice job of predicting housing market moves in 2009.  Her predictions for 2010 include a dip for the residential housing market at mid-year before a recovery later in the year; a foreclosure rate higher than many others are predicting; and a rise in mortgage interest rates to about 6%.  The rising foreclosure rates, Ms. Olick surmises, will push additional inventory into the market and cause continuing pressure on prices.  Her full prediction is here. 

 

Fiserv, a global financial services technology company, recently published its annual analysis of home price trends in more than 375 U.S. markets. It is based substantially on the respected Case-Shiller® Home Price Index, which Fiserv owns.  “Large supplies of foreclosed properties and extremely weak job markets will continue to put downward pressure on home prices,” said David Stiff, Fiserv’s chief economist.  “Many temporary factors that were partly responsible for strong spring and summer real estate markets, including the first-time homebuyer tax credit and Federal Reserve actions to drive down mortgage interest rates, will no longer be bolstering demand.  Consequently, home prices will resume falling again before they stabilize...”  The Fiserv press release about 2010, which is available here, says its data predict a further home price decline in Orlando, FL, of 27% after a similar decline in 2009.  Other Florida, California and Arizona markets, whose price declines are as much as 60% from peak, are expected to continue to slide next year.

 

        The irony of this market is that there has probably never been a worse time to sell a home…or a better time to buy.  As we have written here many times, the natural instinct of those who want to sell their homes and move elsewhere is to wait until the market rebounds.  That strategy may be necessary for those who have little or no equity in their primary homes.  But for others who bought in the 1990s and saw wild appreciations in value during the early years of their ownership and have a nice bit of equity, waiting to move, especially to a lower-cost region, may be unwise from a financial standpoint. (We recognize that all circumstances are different, and money is not everything.)

        Properties in growing markets, such as many towns in the southern U.S., will appreciate faster than most in the north; those who wait could lose buying buyer, in some cases substantial buying power.  Eventually, the costs to get your home ready for sale a few years from now will grow (think roof, heating and cooling systems, cosmetics), further biting into your buying power.  And consider the difference in the costs of living where you live now and where you might want to live.  They could be substantial.

        For some of us, this could be the year to get a move on.