No state’s housing market was hit harder than Florida’s, although Nevada and Arizona can certainly vie for that dubious claim.  The fact is that Nevada arguably has just two major areas of population, Las Vegas and Reno; and Arizona really only sports two of its own metro areas, Tucson and Phoenix, although it can seem as if Metro Phoenix extends forever.  But with the exception of some undeveloped land in its northern center, Florida has had six decades to develop a dense population and, along with it, a housing market value growth that was steady and, in some places, meteoric (as in too high to sustain).

        Ft. Myers was one of those places favored by retiring boomers and speculators who bid up property values to what today seem like ridiculous levels.  At one point in 2005, the median value of a home in the Cape Coral/Ft. Myers market reached $581,000.  Just two years later, it had plummeted to $271,000, and the market has struggled to creep back up from there.  But as we have written here and in our newsletter, there is a price at which decent property must sell, and properties in Ft. Myers seem to have reached that level.  Sales activity began to turn around in 2009 and prices followed suit last year, with a 3% price bump up in the third quarter of 2010 compared with the same quarter in 2009, according to our friend Toby Tobin at GoToby.com.

        In the January/February edition of Home On The Course, which should be out in the next two weeks (sign up above to receive your free copy), I plan to make the case for 2011 being the year golf community prices in the southern U.S. hit bottom and begin a slow rise back up for some and, perhaps, steeply up for a few of the most undervalued but stable properties.  Ft. Myers, with its excellent housing stock and golf courses, is only the first tangible sign of a potential recovery.

        Before I visit a golf community -– and I have visited more than 140 over the last five years –- I conduct research in advance to prepare probing and tough questions for golf community developers, real estate agents and golf professionals.  I pour over the golf community’s web site, look through its marketing materials, talk with local real estate people and visit web sites like CityData.com to see if there is any local buzz about the community.  More often than not, however, the image of the community does not match the reality of a personal inspection.  There is, of course, no substitute for a visit.

Look Before You Leap
        I am currently working with a few of the best golf communities in the southern U.S. to put together weekend visitation programs for readers of GolfCommunityReviews who are considering a move south.  The cost of the “discovery weekend,” including lodging, golf, some meals and a customized tour of the community, will be lower than the published rate and will include some extras, such as a golf tournament on the community's course, side-trips for non-golf-players, and special events (e.g. a local winemaker to lead a tasting).

 

        Transportation to and from the golf communities will be the responsibility of the participants, but we will take care to schedule communities close to good-sized airports and interstate roadways.  If this sounds interesting to you, please respond to the poll question that accompanies this article.  We will need a minimum number of couples to make the visits viable.  Also, if you are interested in visiting a specific community, contact me and I will add it to the list of visits under consideration.  Many thanks, and happy new year.

    --  Larry Gavrich, Editor