When I published an article 16 months ago predicting increased British investment in American golf communities, the exchange rate for one pound of British sterling was $1.63 US.  When I checked today, it was $1.62.  With that kind of buying power and the over-supply of leisure residential properties in the southern U.S. driving prices lower than they were 1 ½ years ago, a modest Euro-invasion of American golf communities is not unlikely.  In fact, according to the National Association of Realtors, the $82 billion foreigners spent on U.S. real estate in the year ended in March was one of the highest levels in recent years, up $16 billion from the prior year.

        Some interesting data emerge from the NAR survey of its members concerning their foreign clients.  Almost 80% said they would use their new home in the U.S. to entertain family and friends or as their primary home,

More homes were bought in the U.S. over the last year by Chinese nationals than by any other country except for Canada.

or both.  The top five nation's whose citizens purchased property in the U.S. included Canada and Mexico, which is not surprising given their proximity, and the UK, also not surprising given the longstanding connection between the countries.  But the second-most number of purchases was from China.  Florida, California, Texas and Arizona accounted for 58% of total real estate sales to foreigners; North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia and Virginia each accounted for 2% of total sales. Only 3% of the purchases were for “commercial properties,” with all others for residential (61% for single-family homes).  A full 80% of the realtors who participated in the survey said the value of the dollar relative to other currencies played a major role in their foreign clients' purchases.

DanielIslandholewithhomes

British citizens looking for an investment in a place like Daniel Island, SC, will be pleasantly surprised at the prices for golf homes, relative to those in the UK.

 

        Let’s face it:  The United Kingdom is a small country, and all of France is barely larger than Texas.  They aren’t making any more land on which to put European golf courses, and if you think environmentalists are aggressive in the States, try building a new course in Europe.  We may bemoan our own economy but it is still considered a safe haven by many investors around the world.  Continuing worries about U.S. debt can only work against the value of the dollar, giving Europeans even greater leverage for large-scale purchases in the U.S.  And considering the economic problems in Greece, Portugal and other bailed-out countries, Europeans seem to be more worried about rampant inflation than we in the U.S. are.  As many economists tell us, real estate investment is one of the most effective hedges against inflation (especially when “safe” investments today are yielding barely 2% interest rates).

        On an apples-to-apples basis, properties in Europe, especially in the UK, are more expensive than comparable properties here in the U.S.

To Europeans worried about Greece, Portugal and other countries, U.S. real estate looks like a good investment.

For example, a lovely four-bedroom home at the St. Mellion Resort in Cornwall, which features 36 holes of golf (including a Jack Nicklaus layout), is currently listed at £450,000 ($729,000 US).  The farmhouse, at 2,300 square feet, is described as “in need of some improvement” (translate “much improvement”); and St. Mellion is a long way from anywhere in the UK.  Contrast that with a four-bedroom, 4 ½ bath, 3,550 square foot home listed on Daniel Island, 15 minutes from the wonderful city of Charleston, SC, and a cart ride from 36 holes of golf by Rees Jones and Tom Fazio, for $719,000.

        Foreign dollars just could have a stimulating effect on one sector of the floundering U.S. housing market.  If you are contemplating a purchase of a golf retirement or golf vacation home, keep an eye on this trend, as it might just push up prices in golf communities that look like a bargain today.  If you would like some help in identifying the golf communities that best fit your criteria, please contact me.

        It is hard to keep track of the plans to restart construction of the Tiger Woods designed golf course at High Carolina, the struggling Cliffs

The developer's excuse for the hold up in construction "sounds as flimsy as Tiger's apologies for fooling around.”

community in the mountains of western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.  The paper of record in nearby Asheville, NC, certainly isn’t helping.

        Last Wednesday, the Asheville Citizen-Times’ Keith Jarrett, who has followed The Cliffs closely over recent years, filed a critical piece under the headline, “Golf Course on Hold at Cliffs at High Carolina.”  Then on Saturday, at the paper’s online edition, a piece written by David Dykes appeared under the headline, “Developer: Tiger Woods Cliffs Project Still on Track in Asheville Area”; the latter story served up the yin to the earlier piece’s yang.

        Although we would like to believe in an independent press, we can’t help thinking that, in the days after Jarrett’s article, Mr. Anthony and his handlers may have reminded the Citizen-Times’ executives of the magnitude of the Cliffs’ advertising budget.  At the height of their success, before the housing market tanked, the Cliffs spent as much as $14 million annually on marketing.

        The Citizen-Times seems as confused as the rest of us about the status of The Cliffs’ highest profile unfinished project.  In February,

At various times, the developer has indicated construction on the Tiger Woods course was on indefinite hold, ready to go in April, and ready to go "by the summer."

Mr. Anthony told the newspaper that construction, which had been halted late last year, would start again at High Carolina in April.  This came a day or two after one of Anthony’s top executives indicated construction was on indefinite hold and months after a loan agreement with residents stipulated that slow property sales at High Carolina would cause a stoppage in construction.  The Cliffs has sold virtually no properties at High Carolina since Tiger Woods’ now infamous Thanksgiving night automobile incident and subsequent bimbo eruptions late last year.  Woods’ fall-off in tournament play and consequent lack of airtime hasn’t helped marketing efforts either.

        After the optimistic tone Anthony set in February, April came and went, and during a TV interview last week, the developer implied that construction was on indefinite hold, later amplified by Keith Jarrett’s Citizen-Times column that characterized the developer’s explanation of the stoppage as “the dog ate my homework.”

        “Anthony's comments that concentrating on getting a Gary Player design in South Carolina up and running by this fall is taking away from High Carolina construction,” Jarrett wrote, “sounds as flimsy as Tiger's apologies for fooling around.”

        But then a few days later, in the online edition of the Citizen-Times, reporter Dykes writes that Mr. Anthony indicated construction would start “by this summer.” (words from the article, but not directly attributed to Mr. Anthony).  The developer, however, is quoted in the online article as saying the work stoppage at High Carolina was “technically on hold,” whatever that means.

        Uncertainty makes markets nervous.  The Cliffs needs to assure its market of potential buyers and the Asheville community that it is organized and has a plan.  It can start by getting its story straight about High Carolina.