It may seem counterintuitive, but the coronavirus is about to have some positive effects on real estate sales in Southeast golf communities. There are a few reasons for this, which I explore in my upcoming June newsletter, Home On The Course. (It’s free; subscribe here.)
Here is the Cliff Notes version of this month’s main feature: Baby Boomers put their searches on hold for the virus, and the pent-up demand is causing them to restart their searches now…Employees, for the most part, like the flexibility of working from home and the savings from not having to commute or buy work clothes. More importantly, their employers are finding they are saving tons of money on office space and utility costs and, surprise, employees are more productive at home. If they can work from home, why not from a home in a warm climate, low-cost-of-living area of the Southeast?…Also, city dwellers fearing a restart of Covid-19 as well as future pandemics are heading for the hills, literally and figuratively. There are many “hills” in the Southeast.
All this plus the mistaken notion that hot weather kills viruses – a wives’ tale, according to scientific evidence – mean more people heading South. But here’s the problem that awaits them: Inventories of homes for sale in many popular areas of the Southeast are well below what the real estate industry considers “in balance” -- six months. What happens when increasing demand meets limited supply? Of course, higher prices.
I offer additional observations about Covid-19 and golf community real estate in the June issue of Home On The Course, coming later this week. Sign up for free here.
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Businesses are doing their best to adapt to the pandemic, and golf community marketing departments are no different. President of Administration Diana Peters at Woodside Plantation in Aiken, SC, was kind enough to let me be a fly on the wall when she and her staff hosted a Zoom meeting with prospective buyers. Zoom, for the uninitiated, is FaceTime on steroids, with the ability to put as many as 100 in a room at one time – the room being the screen on your computer or tablet. (For an additional price, the upper limit is 500.)
I’ve participated in a number of Zoom meetings with family, friends and groups of people who want to discuss a specific topic. Just prior to writing this, my wife and I sat in on a Zoom discussion of the late 1990s movie “As Good As It Gets” starring Jack Nicholson as a mean-spirited, emotionally damaged, obsessive-compulsive writer. (I recommend.) The movie discussion included about the optimal number of participants, just over a dozen. With any larger group, people tend to talk over one another; and the variable response times of modems and wireless routers can cause a lag that causes participants to miss a lot. There are also some moments of freeze frame that always seem to occur when a participant is about to say something important, perhaps profound – but there is no way to know that, and you don’t want to stop momentum by asking someone to repeat him- or herself.
The Woodside Plantation meeting was burdened with some of these technical issues, but it was well organized and the agenda was geared to providing plenty of information for potential buyers with a range of prior knowledge about the community. The first half of the hourlong meeting included introductions from marketing and sales staff, followed by brief stories from two couples and a single resident who have chosen Woodside as their homes. The owners were well chosen, with one couple living there permanently, another couple shuttling between Aiken and their home in Washington, D.C., and the single woman whose husband passed away a couple of years ago. Her heartfelt story about losing her husband and how she held fast against the urgings of her family to return to her native Minnesota was priceless marketing communication as it demonstrated, in human terms, one person’s serious commitment to life at Woodside. She and her husband had created the “ambassador” program there that partners resident couples with prospects who visit the community and helps new residents adjust. She still runs the program today.
The last half of the meeting included a question and answer session. Some of the questions were general but the specific ones were relevant to all, including about distance to the nearest airport (answer, 45 minutes), if fences to keep pets inside a property are okay (yes, with permission from the architectural review board), the range of home prices ($300,000 to over $1 million), the number of part-timers (vacationers) who own homes (relatively few) and the cost of a social membership ($140 per month which provides access to clubhouse, dining and fitness centers). One of the owners mentioned that the Fuzzy Zoeller designed golf course will open in July, joining the Nicklaus designed golf course to give golfer residents a full 36 holes.
One participant asked a question I tend to ask when I visit a golf community and speak with residents: “What are the best and worst things about living at Woodside?” One owner answered, “Southern hospitality is alive [at Woodside].” And the “worst” was about “traffic,” the respondent adding with a smile, “It takes you 15 minutes to get anywhere.”
Now that should be enough to sell Woodside to any Northeasterner who has commuted to work.
Note to those of you who live within a two-hour drive of where the New York, Massachusetts and Connecticut borders meet – and that means you who live in Hartford, Albany, just north of New York City, and northern New Jersey. If you really want to celebrate the freedom to play fun golf during these less than fun times, throw your clubs in the trunk, start your engines and head for Copake Country Club in rural Craryville, NY. You would swear Donald Ross designed it, but he didn’t, a contemporary of his did.
In any case, I have played the course 10 times and try to get there annually from my home 90 minutes away. Green fees are cheap, the course is always in excellent condition, the food is terrific and everyone is friendly and happy to see you (especially these days, I assume).
I have written my extended thoughts about Copake at my sister website, OffTheBeatenCartPath.com. Check it out and all the other reviews of some out-of-the-way layouts that deserve a lot of love.
With few exceptions, golf courses that have remained open the last two months across the nation have done a good job of adapting to play during the pandemic -- by closing pro shops and clubhouses and accepting green fee payment online only; by restricting cart use to one person or mandating walking only; by turning cups upside down or inserting raised foam edges to keep flags free from grabbing; and, most recently, by announcing the requirement to wear masks whenever there is a situation in which players are within the suggested social distance of six feet. Scorecards have also become a rarity.
Yet despite all these restrictions that golf purists surely -- however quietly -- hate, reports are that public courses are crowded across the country where the weather is good. Public layouts, by the way, account for 80% of all golf courses.
“Every day is Saturday morning,” friend and fellow blogger Brad Chambers wrote recently about Monroe Country Club near his home in Charlotte, NC. He has written a review of Monroe for my companion web site, OffTheBeatenCartPath.com. “When I checked in for my round, the golf pro told me they were completely full today (Friday), were full yesterday and were full all weekend.”
“Almost any industry you can name is struggling to stay solvent during the Coronavirus epidemic,” he added. “[But] not golf in North Carolina, nor in any other state that is allowing it to be played.”
Brad has been monitoring GolfNow, TeeOff and other sites in his state that offer discount rounds and, he wrote, “[the green fees] are $10 to $20 higher than I remember seeing them at any time, especially during the week.” (Note: Brad’s article at OffTheBeatenCartPath.com will be posted by Wednesday. In the meantime, you can read his other entertaining articles at ShootingYourAge.com, the web site he maintains.)
Brad's is, for sure, anecdotal evidence of the popularity of golf, but it provides something of an antidote to the continuous harping by the mainstream media about the death of golf. In the Wall Street Journal’s “Mansion” section on Friday, a front-page article argued that new-community developers have turned their backs on golf and are now including such amenities as community gardens instead. Some, as we read often, are plowing over their under-utilized golf courses and creating green spaces for walking and other essentially passive ventures (but only if local ordinances and covenants prevent construction of new homes).
I have no quibble with preserving green space in planned developments. We have 24 million golfers in the U.S. and the vast majority play on public golf courses not located inside the gates of traditional golf communities. And the many more millions who don’t play golf deserve the majority of space devoted to whatever they want to do – or not do, in the case of such leisurely activities as walking. I do object to the media’s contention that any of these reactions by developers is a signal of the demise of golf. There is no denying that, in anticipation of baby boomers reaching retirement age, developers saw golf as the ultimate lure for real estate sales. The result was more golf courses in the U.S. than was sustainable, especially in view of how the margins to operate a country club even in the best of times are incredibly thin. A pullback in the industry was inevitable. Golfers population is down from 30 million at its peak in 2003 to 24 million today.
But 24 million is still a huge number for any activity, and golf is by far more popular than other active sports like skiing (9 million) and tennis (fewer than 18 million). There is clear evidence from just before Covid-19 became an acknowledged crisis that golf was as popular as ever. According to the National Golf Foundation, golf rounds played in February were up 19.1% compared with February 2019; it is my own humble assumption that February rounds played in regions where Covid has had the most profound effects – the Northeast and Pacific Northwest, where rounds were up 99.6% and 52.2%, respectively – could translate into, “I gotta play before they shut things down.” (Check out the Golf Datatech map here.). Golfers are smarter than the average Joes, and they could see things coming that politicians and others couldn’t. (Okay, I’m a partisan when it comes to my fellow golfers.)
So intent were golfers on playing even after restrictions were in place that they literally put themselves in harm’s way. In Rhode Island, for example, three neighboring Massachusetts golfers dropped their car off just short of the RI border, threw their clubs in the back of a car with Rhode Island license plates, drove to a nearby golf course, ignored the warning signs that said “Rhode Island golfers only,” started play and then were arrested. Where local municipalities have closed courses, local players have shared their grievances in a more politically correct way, by signing petitions; in Palm Beach County, FL, according to the New York Sunday Times, 8,000 people signed such a petition.
Couple the NGF numbers and the obvious intensity of dedicated golfers with Brad Chambers’ own on-the-ground evidence, and a case might be made that when the all-clear signal is given, the return to the golf course could very well be dramatic, restorative and, like reconnecting after many years with a high school sweetheart, exhilarating – even life changing for some.
Sociologists are predicting that post-pandemic life in the U.S. may never be quite the same. As regards golf, that may not be all bad.
I was going through the 40,000 photos I have taken over the last 15 years and found the one below. I was looking for some photos to accompany a review I just posted at OffTheBeatenCartPath.com. I had forgotten about the photo since I stumbled upon the trash can 10 years ago in Vermont, at Lake St. Catherine Country Club, a wonderful course that certainly qualifies as off the beaten path. Located in Poultney, VT, about a five-iron from Lake St. Catherine across the road and just a couple of miles from the New York State line, I didn’t see any other players on the course on a pleasant fall afternoon.
I wondered at the time, and still do, what may have come over the owner of those clubs in the can. Did he (or she) give up the game on the spot? Was it an accumulation of frustrations or just one bad shot that led to the demolition derby? Today, looking at the photo more closely, it appears that one of the clubs is a putter, which may explain a lot. Is there any club in the bag that betrays us more often? Is there any putter that makes it past a year or two without being discarded for another, like a bothersome mistress? (My wife may be reading this, so let me testify that I have never had one of those, unless you count golf itself.)
The most troubling part of that photo, for me, is that the owner of the clubs saw fit to dump them so unceremoniously, so publicly, without a proper burial. The only time in 60 years of golf that I broke a club – I slammed it against my bag when I was in my 20s – I tossed the two pieces in a lake on the next hole. I recall, as a kid, watching "Terrible" Tommy Bolt on TV toss his clubs in a lake. Water just seems a fitting way to bury your clubs. But, come to think of it, I don’t recall much water on the Lake St. Catherine layout, despite its name. I guess we will have to give you a pass this time, whoever you are.
Please visit OffTheBeatenCartPath.com for reviews about some out of the way golf courses that are worthy of a visit.
Late last week, I was heartened that my golf course standby in Hartford, CT, Keney Park, was doing all the right things to stay open and safe for its customers. These included online payment to avoid the need to go in the pro shop, extra-sanitizing of golf carts while encouraging people to walk, and inverting the golf cups to sit above the green to keep hands out of the cups and off the flagsticks.
It all became pretty much moot on Friday when the Governor declared that, at 8 pm on Monday, all “non-essential” businesses would be closed. After an appeal by the state golf association for an exemption, and emails to the Governor’s office from golfers like me, all courses that had remained open were forced to close.
Last week in the state, temperatures were in the 40s and 50s with one day in the 60s. The mild winter had been good to the turf and golfers, sensing that a drought was ahead – i.e. opportunity to play might dry up for months – crowded golf courses. In New Jersey, according to a New York Times article, play was up 300% in the first 19 days of March in Somerset County. Those courses have also been shut down for now.
Call it divine coincidence but on Monday, the day Connecticut's Governor Ned Lamont decreed all golf courses and other non-essential business be closed at 8 pm, it began alternately snowing and raining in Hartford at noon, covering the course with about four inches of white stuff.
It stopped snowing at 8 pm. The course would not be playable for at least another two weeks anyway.
Stay safe everyone.
Caveat: I am not a financial expert, nor do I play one at this website. I recognize that we are in uncharted waters today, so please do not take the following as advice.
Before coronavirus, and with an eye on the apparent stability of their 401Ks and other equity-dependent investments, thousands of baby boomers were considering a move to golf communities in the South. But with the stock market pretty much in freefall, many may be giving up hope about the retirement lifestyle they had counted on.
Perhaps they shouldn’t.
As the 2001 drop after 9/11 and the 2008 recession taught us, markets come back, and sometimes quickly. In the first day of trading after the 9/11 catastrophe, the market sank by more than 7%. But a month later, the Dow and NASDAQ were back to pre-9/11 levels. It took longer to recover from the global financial crisis that reached its peak in 2008, but by 2013, stability had been restored and many high-quality homes in the southern U.S. had passed pre-recession levels.
During both those major financial events, some folks nearing retirement panicked, sold their equities at steep losses and put their money in safe instruments – at annual interest rates lower than 2%. When markets rebounded by multiples of that 2%, those conservative investors were left behind. Even worse, for those with relocation aspirations, housing prices had risen by as much as 5% to 8% per year in the highest-quality communities; these investors found that the homes they might have purchased earlier were now well beyond their reach.
Like everyone else, I do not like to lose money. Having begun my 8th decade, my wife and I need all the savings we can hold onto. I was still working in 2001 and counted on a paycheck to take care of my family’s sustenance. But as a retiree in 2008, I was on a fixed income, and the recession caused me a fair bit of agita. But call it laziness, brain freeze or dumb luck, I ignored the instinct to panic-sell the equities in my retirement fund. By 2012, I was feeling financially whole again.
We are all in different circumstances that govern our decisions. But for those of us who have the resources and patience to weather storms, sometimes inaction is the best action.
Most of us will not make it to Augusta National for this year’s Masters tournament, but many will certainly be glued to the television for most every stroke, or at least the after-round highlights. A daily ticket to attend each of the four rounds of the event can reach well into the hundreds of dollars, but there is a way to be fully invested for as little as $1 for the entire tournament – by selecting the six players from the field whom you think have the best chance of winning, or at least of making the cut.
“Fantasy” betting sites such as Fanduel and Draft Kings now legally take bets on all golf tournaments, foreign and domestic, every week of the season. What started as a roundabout way to pay fantasy baseball and football players for daily wagers now extends to golf and other sports. Although you can wager up to a few hundred dollars, casual fans like me plunk down as little as $1 to pick a team and then settle in to see if your “horses” make it to the finish. It is akin to owning your own baseball team and trading your players for a new crop every weekend. (Full disclosure, I tend to lose interest in any but the major tournaments when two or more of my players fail to make the cut after round two.)
You do not get to pick any six players, though. You have a budget, typically $50,000, for your entire team, and the betting site assigns values to each player such that you really only get to choose one or two Rory McIlroys or Justin Thomases for your team; you need to dig deep to find tour rookies or Monday qualifier types to round out your group. For this week’s Player’s Championship, I note that the favorite, McIlroy, is priced at $11,700. Pair him with Jon Rahm ($11,000) and you have spent nearly half your salary with four players to go. Good luck with Sepp Straka at $6,000.
Payoffs depend on the amount you bet and the various types of wagers. Since I wager only every few weekends, I tend to choose the events in which I think I have the best chance to make more than I bet. This past weekend, for example, for the Bay Hill Invitational in Florida, I chose a $5 event with only 71 participants and a total payout to the top 15 of $300; other events can feature thousands of participants and, of course, they will pay a lot more to the top finishers and will typically pay deeper into the group of also-rans. The Bay Hill winner in my betting group was only going to make $60 but the chances were good you could at least get your money back if you chose wisely. (Note: Some make a living from this. I’m retired.)
For a change, I did get my money back, and then some, pairing the eventual winner, Tyrell Hatton, with Sung Jae Im (3rd), always-in-the-money Colin Morikawa (T9th), Matthew Fitzpatrick (T9th), Talor Gooch (T13th) and Bubba Watson, my only big name choice, who missed the cut.
I can hear you saying, “Talor Gooch? How would he ever know to bet on Talor Gooch?” The answer is I have Sirius/XM radio in my car, I listen to the fantasy sports station, and every Wednesday they invite a golf betting expert on to discuss that weekend’s golf event and his picks, both the top-budget golfers as well as some deep sleepers. When I heard him say “Talor Gooch,” I figured few other players would take a flyer on the barely known Gooch. Other good sources for information and odds on all the tournament participants include the betting sites for William Hill, Bovada and others.
Draft Kings and the other fantasy sites – they try not to refer to themselves as “betting sites, will sometimes kick in a few dollars for new subscribers. This could be a good week to consider plunking down a dollar or two and settling back to watch the Player’s Championship. But I am offering no advice on picks, except to predict you will have fun and you have to be able to afford the losses (which is why I never bet more than $5). As they say in the investment business, “Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.” My $27 of winnings this past weekend was a total surprise. Who knows what this weekend will bring.
I have big plans for late spring and, of course, they involve golf. It also involves a friend from North Carolina and a brother-in-law from England and a week of golf in the Scottish Highlands. I mention their geographies because, like a putt that rolls in a direction you didn’t read, who knows which countries and states will be affected by the coronavirus come June?
I booked my plane flight to London before the virus left China, committing a little over $1,000 for my wife and me. I have a resort booked for five days in Aviemore, a Scottish town about a 35-minute drive from Inverness and under an hour from widely regarded seaside links and one heralded parkland course with the oddly attractive name Boat of Garten.
Beside the flight and lodging, the other dollars I will need to commit ahead of time – all non-refundable under normal circumstances – are the golfing fees which, for three people, are not inconsequential. (I also intend to ship my golf clubs from Connecticut to the first golf course we will play in Scotland, but I can wait on that until the week before I leave the States.) When I looked a month ago, the online tee sheets at Lossiemouth, Nairn, Fortrose & Markie and Boat of Garten still looked fairly open for the first week of June; on the other hand, we don’t want to fly thousands of miles without tee times. I expect to book those times next week.
My question for the golf courses will not be about refunds but rather if the trip is cancelled because of circumstances beyond our control, will I be able to get a rain check. More than that, I have begun to research travel insurance, something I have never considered buying in the past. I went to a web site TravelInsurance.com and entered a few details about my trip that included the ages of the four people traveling, the country visiting (United Kingdom) and the total cost of the trip. (I estimated $5,000 total for all of us.) The insurance site also wanted to know when I made my first payment, which was for the flights in mid-February.
The 18 quotes that came back ranged in price from $296 to a whopping $819, but each carried different features and coverage. The low-price estimate had everything I was looking for, and included the following:
Trip Cancellation $5,000 (100% of trip cost)
Trip Interruption $7,500 (150% of trip cost)
Medical Evacuation $250,000 per plan
Emergency Medical $50,000 per plan ($0 deductible)
Baggage Loss $1,000 per person
Flight Accident $50,000 per person (plan limits apply)
Accidental Death No Coverage
The $819 option covered trip cancellation and trip interruption at exactly the same levels, but added medical evacuation at $1 million per person, emergency medical at $50,000 per person (rather than $50,000 for four people), baggage loss at $2,000 per person, and no coverage for flight accident or accidental death.
I’ll be doing a bit more research but the lower priced plan looks more than good enough.
My wife and I are spending a couple of weeks on the South Carolina coast at Pawleys Plantation after our son’s marriage in Vero Beach, FL a week ago. As you might expect in February, the weather was much more suited to golf in Vero than it is in Pawleys Island, SC. The 530 miles between those two cities makes a big difference in terms of climate.
This morning (Saturday) in Pawleys Island, it is 38 degrees and the Saturday men’s golfing group just called off its round. Although the sun is shining brightly, the wind is blowing at about a 10-mph clip. My wife has headed for a walk on the beach, but I believe the over/under on her beach walk will be about five minutes; I have been out there on cold days and the wind blows stronger and the air feels much colder than they do just one mile inland.
Mindful of Mark Twain’s quote that “Everyone talks about the weather, but no one ever does anything about it,” I understand that when it comes to golfing, especially in the winter, there is no perfect climate in America; okay, I have heard San Diego comes close, but if your target is the Southeast for a retirement location with golf, you will have to pick your poison. Florida this time of the year is terrific, with many days in the 70s and even the worst days tolerable in terms of temperature, even if it rains a bit. But, oh, those summers in Florida can be relentlessly hot and humid, forcing the inveterate golfer to play early in the day or late.
On the Carolina coast, summers can be almost as hot as in Florida, but the ocean breezes and almost predictable afternoon thunderstorms – they last a few minutes and cool things down a little bit for an hour or so – make summer golf in the Carolinas slightly more tolerable. But winter is a catch-as-catch-can endeavor, as the men’s group at Pawleys Plantation found out today. Bottom line: If you can stand the heat, Florida golf is the best bet year-round. But if you don’t mind losing a few days of golf each winter, South Carolina is a great alternative.
By the way, my wife just returned from the beach. She says she made it just over six minutes. She loves the beach.