In yesterday's article (see immediately below), I reported that a 5-acre piece of property in the Bald Rock community in Cashiers, NC, had been foreclosed and was being offered for $249,900 by the lender.  At just a 12% discount to what other lots had sold for recently in the upscale community, that didn't seem like much of a deal.
    Carol Clay, the local realtor who has the listing, sent me a note late yesterday afternoon to say that the bank had dropped the price to $224.900.  The betting here is that won't be the last price reduction.
    The value of a piece of residential real estate is not difficult to assess.
If a developer has dropped prices well below what others in the community paid for their lots, this probably is a sign of desperation.

Prices are set substantially on the basis of supply and demand (and the ease with which rights to the property can be transferred from one person to another).  The current financial crisis, as well as the rippling effects of foreclosures and tight lending across the nation, with the consequent loss of many thousands of jobs, will continue to scare away buyers and drive demand and prices down.  The oversupply of units virtually everywhere, but especially in places like Orlando, Miami, Phoenix and Las Vegas, further erodes the prospects of price appreciation in the next year or two at minimum.
    Every crisis offers an opportunity for someone, although unless you have oodles of cash, it is hard to see the opportunity in the current fiscal mess, since banks are generally not lending money to anyone without stellar collateral.  The opportunity to "leverage" a bank's money to buy under-appreciated real estate is just not there.
    If you do have cash and are contemplating taking advantage of bargain prices, do a lot of homework to make sure the quality of the community you are considering is unassailable.  That means the developer, if he is still on site, has deep pockets, or that the Home Owners' Association, if it is running things, has a consistent track record of fiscal responsibility.  Make sure the promised amenities are either in place or that money is in escrow to pay for them.  Note that if a developer has dropped prices well below what others in the community paid for their lots, this probably is a sign of desperation; good developers do everything they can not to undercut their customers' property values.  Instead, look for concessions from the developer, such as upgrades or beneficial financial terms (payment for closing costs, for example).
    Finally, make sure you find yourself a real estate agent who not only can show you suitable individual homes in different golf communities but can also help you assess the relative strengths and sustainability of each.  The purchaser has all the leverage in this market, and with the right kind of help, you can find phenomenal bargains. There is an oversupply of real estate agents right now for many of the same reasons there is an oversupply of homes; you have the leverage to demand that they work hard and well in your behalf.  And if the market is any indication, they have plenty of time to devote to you.
    Transylvania is a county in the mountains of North Carolina, not Dracula's home, but realtors there could be excused for thinking some evil entity is sucking the blood from their market.  During the early months of the national housing market crisis, sales volumes and prices had remained fairly steady in the Carolina mountains, driven by considerable wealth coming out of Atlanta and Charlotte in search of second homes, as well as all those Floridians fed up with hot summers and clogged roadways.
    Atlanta and Charlotte are major financial centers, and the free spending
Today, would you spend $250,000 on a nice piece of property, 10,000 shares of GE, or keep your cash for now?

days of most executives are over, at least for now.  They have stopped buying homes along the coast and in the mountains.  It is clear from the comments of western North Carolina realtors and some recently published data that the mountains are losing their sugar daddies.  Sales are off more than 40% in Transylvania County from August 2007 to August 2008.  September data should be out soon and may look worse given that last September was a big month.  
    Across price ranges, no category is immune, but the most expensive properties seem to be taking an especially big hit.  For example, just four homes have sold in the last three months at $900,000 or more, uncharacteristic for this part of the mountains.  And evidence is emerging that foreclosures are starting to infect the top of the market too.
    "I have seen a few very high-end foreclosures lately," says Carol Clay, a Brevard realtor who publishes an interesting blog about mountain real estate [click here].  "I wouldn't call it a stampede, but they're there."  
    Carol has a foreclosure listing for a 5.6-acre tract of land in the posh Bald Rock community in Cashiers.  At $249,900, or $44,000 an acre, it is priced below the customary $50,000 per acre price for lots in Bald Rock.  Yet in this skittish market, it is hard to imagine that a 12% discount is going to motivate any buyers, especially when they can get a 40% discount on many blue chip stocks (and a decent divided to boot).  
    At this point, an investor would be hard pressed to choose among an unimproved piece of property, 10,000 shares of General Electric or some $250,000 FDIC insured bank account.  The banks holding the paper are going to have to do considerably better.  Isn't that an understatement for these times?