I spent a few hours yesterday at the Live South real estate show in Greenwich, CT. The number of exhibitors was down to about 30, well off the 70 of just two years ago and less than the "45+" that Live South advertised at its web site. Although exhibitors I spoke with are keeping a stiff upper lip, they are concerned after suffering their worst year in 2008, with sales off more than 25% in some communities.
The problem is that the migration from north to south has ground almost to a halt. People who have lost 20% or more in their primary homes, and more in their stock portfolios, have shelved their relocation plans. Real estate agents north and south say 2008 was the worst year for sales in their careers. However, those same agents say January sales were a significant improvement over a dismal fourth quarter of 2008.
"Some sellers can't wait anymore," said Susan Albright, a Fairfield County (CT) real estate agent who spoke at the show. She offered as reasons health issues, job relocation and the desire to get on with their lives, including retiring to their dream homes. Ms. Albright also added that those who want or need to sell their homes this year should be doing so sooner rather than later.
"Spring is the time when people are looking at homes to get their children ready for school in the fall," she said. Summer, she added, may be too late in the current economy to find enough buyers.
Exhibitors echoed her experience, a few saying that sales in January were greater than the three preceding months. They are cautiously optimistic that performance will continue.
One couple at Ms. Albright's presentation has been searching aggressively for their perfect southern community. They complained that many communities are not sharing information about resale properties and are, instead, pushing their developer lots and homes. Most exhibitors I spoke with said they handle re-sales as well as new properties. But when I asked about the referral fees they were paying to agents who send them customers, they indicated they are paying more for new properties than for those owned by their residents. If you are looking at a partially completed community, make sure you inquire about all properties available. Re-sales are often lower priced, sometimes by a significant measure.
Bottom line: Golf communities in the south are desperate and ready to deal. If you have plans to relocate there, and the means to do it, now is a good time to "run the numbers." Keep in mind that cost of living in most parts of the south is lower than elsewhere; by relocating, you could recoup some of your lost equity just in living expenses. If you want some help with some cost of living comparisons for southern communities, let me know by clicking on the Contact Us button at the top of the page. There is no obligation or fee whatsoever.
