Existing home sales jumped 9.4 percent from August to September and an almost identical amount from September last year to this year, according to a report by the National Association of Realtors.  In his typical cheerleading fashion, the NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, centered the economic universe on housing.

        "Despite spectacular gains in the stock market, principally from the financial sector recovery," Yun said today, "most of the 75 million home owning families have more wealth tied to their homes." 

        Financial sector recovery?  In Yun's definition, financial sector is Wall Street only -- no banks, no insurance companies.  It doesn't

Thank you, Captain Obvious.

matter that the banks have tightened up on lending and deferred to the government to encourage purchases.  Yun defines the financial sector to fit his argument, not reality.

        "Home values could soon turn consistently positive and help the broad base of middle-class families, but we are not there yet."

        Of course they "could turn consistently positive," but will they?  This is the guy who hundreds of thousands of real estate agents, as well as consumers, look to for pithy observations.  Thank you, Captain Obvious.

        "We're getting early indications of price stabilization, but we need a steady supply of qualified buyers to meaningfully bring inventories down and return us to a period of normal, steady price growth and to fully remove consumer fears, which would then revive the broader economy."

        What a bunch of bull!  Intellectual honesty cries for testimony that no one knows anything about price trends in this market.  More foreclosures loom as more variable loans reset.  And all bets are off regarding jobs and their effect on housing.  Indeed for even a cigar store economist to make reference to consumer fears and never mention jobs is to reveal himself yet again as a shameless flack.

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The welcome mat (and chairs) are out for the British at Owl's Nest in Campton, NH.  All others are welcome too.

         A curious thing is happening at some New England golf resorts that feature residential properties:  They are looking well beyond the northeast to attract new residents.  Although the rationales for targeting Florida and the United Kingdom may be quite different, the potential returns may well be worth the marketing efforts.

         In 2008, the state of Florida suffered its first net population loss in 50 years.  Fed up with hurricane threats, higher insurance premiums, eroding infrastructure, and mind-numbing traffic, Floridians who can afford it are heading north.  The mountains of North Carolina are among the most popular destinations for those seeking moderation from the stifling heat of the southern two-thirds of Florida.  Places like Asheville and Brevard in North Carolina offer surprisingly temperate climates in the winter and bearable temperatures and humidity in the summer.  Some golf courses in the mountains near Asheville stay open year round.  The choices of communities are wide ranging and high quality, with The Cliffs Communities at the high end ($1 million and up homes, $150,000 golf membership); to Trillium (homes beginning in the mid six figures), whose kitschy Morris Hatalsky layout grows on you; to Reems Creek with a British designed links-style course and adjacent homes starting under $500,000. 

         But Asheville is getting crowded, and because of the mountains, many of the heavily trafficked roads in and out of the city

As Asheville becomes more and more crowded, so too will its roads.  New England golf resorts are counting on some of the traffic heading their way.

cannot be expanded easily to accommodate an influx of population the way Florida's dead flat land could during that state's boom years.  My own recent travels through Vermont, New Hampshire and Massachusetts indicate prices in New England are lower than comparables in the Carolina mountains, and adjacent or close to golf courses of a corresponding high quality.  For those reasons, and because many retired Florida couples want to be closer to their children and grandchildren living north of the Mason/Dixon line, northeast resorts are wise to market to the Sunshine State crowd, while targeting also retiring baby boomers already living in the northeast.        

         The United Kingdom is also in the sights of some New England resort communities.  Developers at Owl's Nest, for example, a community with reasonably priced condos ($300s and up) and detached houses on an exciting mountain golf course (I played it and liked it), have forged an arrangement with a British marketing firm to develop prospects.  This makes sense for two reasons:  The dollar/sterling pound exchange rate is tilted in favor of those who live in the UK (and likely to stay that way as crushing debt erodes the dollar value further); and the kingdom doesn't have much more land on which to build large-scale golf developments.  Although continental European golf resorts and land-rich countries like Turkey are within a few hours flight of the UK, New England golf resort communities can offer a price advantage and more mountain golf courses.

         And, of course, an Englishman should feel right at home in a place called New England.

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New England golf and ski resorts, like Stratton Mountain, are counting on more interest from Florida retirees looking for a cooler alternative.

 

If you would like more information on golf communities north or south, just contact me and I will be happy to help.