The housing market has peaked, according to the mainstream media and some economists who follow home sales closely. Much of the blame, if you can call it that, is laid at the feet of Millennials, those in the 25-to-34 age category who are buying homes at a much lower rate than their predecessor generations. According to the Urban Institute, for example, just 37 percent of those in that age category are homeowners, compared with 45.4 percent of Gen Xers and 45 percent of Baby Boomers when they were in the Millennials’ age range. It stands to reason that if those youngsters are not buying the homes of us oldsters, we are going to have a harder time selling at the prices we want, if at all.
Therefore, many of you reading this who are in the Boomer category are probably asking yourselves if this slowdown in the housing market means that the primary house you have every intention of selling in the next year or two will fetch a lower price than you hoped for, or that it will indeed be tougher to sell...and therefore keep you from following your dream of a warm-weather home. To those concerns I have a simple rejoinder, a broken record I have been playing ever since a much bigger housing recession in 2008: Don’t worry, be happy; sell your house for what the market says it’s worth, not what you think it is worth; and move to your retirement dream location.
Here’s why I sound like Pollyanna. First, if you sell your home in the North for less because of a general housing recession, chances are you will pay less for your home in the sunnier South. There is a price at which anything will sell, and your house is in that category. The market will tell you what is a fair price for your real estate. If someone offers it, take it.
Second, as I have written ad nauseum in the past, the cost to live in the South is almost invariably less than the cost in the higher-taxed North, and the difference is often dramatic. If today you spend, for example, $75,000 per year on food, utilities, transportation, property taxes, entertainment and other living expenses, you could save as much as $20,000 or more on an annual basis living in a Southern golf community, even with homeowner fees. If you stay up North and wait for your primary home to increase in price over, say, two years, you will need it to increase 10 percent over those two years on a $400,000 house to match the $40,000 you might save by moving South. That is not likely to happen in a flat market.
Here’s just one example of the potential savings. According to the cost-of-living comparison tool at BestPlaces.net, a couple currently living in Natick, MA, who chooses to move to the lakeside golf community of Savannah Lakes Village in McCormick, SC – two excellent golf courses, rural setting, adjacent to Lake Thurmond – would save nearly 48% on annual expenses. (Note: Most of that is in real estate costs; the cost of living tool averages the much lower-priced homes in town with home prices inside the community. But still, 48%?)
And, third, and perhaps the most important consideration, a non-financial one: Is waiting a year or more going to make you happy, even if you save a few dollars by selling your home at a slightly higher price? Chances are you have pointed toward a retirement place in a warm weather climate for many of your working years. You owe it to yourself to put "Serious Search for a Golf Home in 2019" on your resolutions list. Let me know if I can help. (Contact me.)
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Myrtle Beach area golf courses, whose total once stood at over 120, continue to be under pressure in a still-oversaturated market. Local news outlets are reporting that River Oaks, a golf community just north of Highway 501, the main east/west thoroughfare entering Myrtle Beach, will close nine of its 27 holes and build more than 250 homes on 60 acres of former fairways and greens.
This is only the latest in a continuing spate of closures over the last decade in a market that was once called a “supermarket of golf.” Just last week we learned that the owners of Indian Wells Golf Club, part of the Founders Group International of 22 golf courses in the Myrtle Beach area, had asked the county zoning board to rezone the golf course to include condo unit development. (The golf course was previously zoned for single-family home construction. Needless to say, homeowners in the surrounding neighborhoods are not.
The Indian Wells plans may be more problematical than those at River Oaks, where owners will still have 18 holes of golf remaining -– at least for the time being. Founders Group has petitioned Horry County for a change in zoning on the 150-acre Indian Wells golf course to permit construction of 255 single-family homes and 257 townhomes. Because the golf course was already zoned for single-family houses, residents are choosing not to take the typical stand that their home values will be eroded by the loss of the golf course. They say they fear environmental issues.
Maryann Dube, president of the adjacent Woodlake Village’s homeowners’ association, told Myrtle Beach Sun’s online publication, “We’re going to be in big trouble if they build…The whole golf course floods tremendously, [and] they’re not going to be able to do anything to fix that.”
Nearby residents and members of the other Founders Group courses, almost all of them located inside residential developments, are bound to be nervous about the Indian Wells events. That club was among the first that the Chinese company owners purchased in the area nearly a decade ago; the organization has been in the news over recent years because of squabbles among its owners and charges of embezzlement against a few of its executives.
As a vacation home owner at Pawleys Plantation in Pawleys Island, SC, home to a Jack Nicklaus golf course owned by Founders International, I will be watching for related news in the coming weeks and months. Watch this space.
At this stage it is just rumor, but the noise coming from some residents of The Cliffs as well as from local developers is loud enough to invoke the old “where there’s smoke there’s fire” adage. Residents at a high-end luxurious collection of communities like The Cliffs are a savvy bunch, many former captains of industry who were paid during their careers for what they knew. And what residents seem to know at The Cliffs, which is owned by Arendale Holdings, is that the development group in charge of the private club amenities and land development at Kiawah Island is negotiating to purchase the Cliffs’ vaunted amenities and unsold real estate.
In the last week, I reached out to both South Street Partners, the Charlotte-based real estate equity investment firm that purchased the Kiawah Island holdings in 2013, and The Cliffs own marketing department, to confirm the persistent rumors. I have not heard back from either.
But a pending sale makes sense from a number of standpoints. According to Cliffs residents, land sales in the community have not met Arendale’s expectations, and that may explain why they are seeking to sell their interest rather than commit to millions of dollars to fund new clubhouses they promised at Keowee Springs and Mountain Park.
Arendale has company in its desire to move on. Worthington Hyde, an equity investment firm out of Atlanta which had loaned money to original Cliffs developer Jim Anthony, gained in foreclosure in 2008 more than 2,000 acres and 250 lots at Cliffs at Keowee Falls. Worthington Hyde decided that developing the land might yield more than flipping it to a bottom-fishing buyer during a recession. But lot sales have been slow even in recent years, especially because the lots they “inherited” from Anthony are mostly located in interior wooded areas, far from the lake where lots were already mostly in the hands of private owners. Those who can afford to buy into and live at The Cliffs prefer lots with a view of water or mountains.
Worthington Hyde recently announced at a meeting with Keowee Falls owners that they have sold their interest in The Cliffs to the Colorado-based Resource Land Holdings. Private development companies are not known for their public communications, and there is nothing in a Google search and the Worthington Hyde and Cliffs’ websites about the deal. However, at that meeting with Keowee Falls owners, Resource Land Holdings executives indicated they plan to package some homes and lots together rather than just sell the land alone.
Worthington may have committed an unforced error when it opted to use an outside broker for the sale of lots at Keowee Falls, rather than co-broker with Arendale and The Cliffs’ sales office, which had established marketing power from the high-spending Jim Anthony days. With the arrangement, Worthington effectively threw itself into competition with Arendale for the sale of lots. At long last, Worthington decided to use Cliffs Realty to help sell its lots but the recent sale to the Colorado group implies that move was too little too late.
Current residents of The Cliffs give Arendale credit for stabilizing operations and keeping the golf courses in tip-top shape. They appreciate as well that Arendale has run things conservatively, even though they expected more in the way of clubhouse development. But Arendale is in the business of selling land, and more of their emphasis has been on that aspect of the operation, according to residents, than in enhancing the experience of club membership, whose all-in initiation fee was dropped to $50,000 in the post Anthony era. The golf courses remain in terrific condition, but most residents do not wander far from their home courses, even though they have unfettered access to all seven layouts, from Lake Keowee to Asheville, NC, and down to the Greenville, SC, area. The drive times can amount to as much as 1 hour or more, and the notion of being able to play seven excellent golf courses has lost some of its luster for both residents and potential buyers.
We will keep our eyes on The Cliffs in coming weeks and, if the sale goes through, will make it the lynchpin of our January edition of Home On The Course, our free to subscriber newsletter. Subscribe here.
Last Thursday, families gathered to celebrate Thanksgiving. Many probably gave thanks after the meal that political discussions did not ruin the meal.
For those contemplating a move to a golf community in the coming year or two, and wondering what the political climate in areas of the Southeast, our monthly Home On The Course newsletter, December edition, may provide some guidance. It launches tomorrow via email with a rundown of mid-term election results by counties that are host to some of our favorite golf communities in the Southeast. Some results were expected and some were surprising.
See for yourself by subscribing here.
I am working on a “Post Election Special” for the December issue of Home On The Course, our almost-monthly newsletter. I had been hoping that my research would show more and more golf communities surrounded by counties with a near-balance of red and blue voters. But so-called “purple” counties are still far and few between in the Southeast Region.
Because voting patterns are volatile one election to the next, the definition of a “purple” county must necessarily be broad. For example, nationwide there were 206 “pivot counties,” those that voted for Obama in both his elections and then for Trump in 2016. Based on that, they meet my definition of a “purple” county. (Note: Just because a county is “purple” doesn’t indicate that a specific golf community within it is the same color. Still, some golf communities, especially those in rural counties, comprise a large chunk of the local electorate.)
By definition, McCormick County, SC, a pivot county and home to the sprawling Savannah Lakes Village, is purple. It voted for President Obama in 2008 and 2012 and for President Trump in 2016. In this year’s election for Congressman in the district that comprises McCormick County, Republican Jeff Duncan garnered 67% of the vote. McCormick County results are not yet available for that race but the widespread and reliably Republican district includes such notable golf communities as the Cliffs communities at Lake Keowee, The Reserve at Lake Keowee and Keowee Key.
Chatham County surrounds The Landings on Skidaway Island, the 4,800-acre, six-golf-course community just 20 minutes from downtown Savannah, GA. The Landings is home to 8,000 residents, most of them full-time. Voters in Chatham County showed their independence by overwhelmingly throwing their support to Democratic candidate for Governor Stacey Abrams but also to Republican incumbent Congressman Buddy Carter, each with just under 60% of the votes.
You would think a rural county like Nelson in western Virginia might be deep red but, in fact, it is a shade of purple, depending on whether the election is for Congressman or Senator. In the race for Congress, the Republican won by about 53% to 47%, yet in the Senatorial election, the incumbent Democrat, Tim Kaine, earned 52% of the vote to 46% for his Republican opponent. You don’t get much more purple than that.
I’ll cover the election results relative to golf communities in the December edition of Home On The Course. To receive your emailed copy, free of charge, subscribe today: Click here.
My home course in Pawleys Island, SC, was recently re-rated by the USGA. In the last few years, a few changes made the course marginally easier to play. And yet, from virtually all tee boxes, the course rating and slope ratings have remained substantially the same, or actually increased.
The significant tweaks in recent years at Pawleys Plantation were designed to reduce the time per round on the challenging layout. For example, two large live oak trees that shielded the right half of the green on the par 5 11th green about 80 yards in front are now gone, making a lay-up placement less of a daunting task and a shot at birdie more frequent. The acres of bunkers that line many of the fairways on the Jack Nicklaus Signature Course are now designated waste bunkers almost all the way to the green, making it possible to ground your club behind the ball before your take a whack at it. For those uncomfortable with hovering the club above the sand before full swings -- count me as one -– that is a consequential change.
From the tips at Pawleys Plantation, the Golden Bear tees -- named for designer Nicklaus -- the layout plays to a total of 7,031 yards. The latest course rating is a whopping 75.2 with a slope of an equally robust 150, down from a rating of 75.7, but with an increase of slope from 148. At Pine Valley Golf Club in New Jersey, acknowledged as one of the toughest courses in the nation, the course rating is precisely the same as at Pawleys, 75.2 on a layout that is only a few yards longer, although the slope at Pine Valley is 155. At the relentlessly difficult Shinnecock Hills, the rating and slope are 74.4 and 140, respectively. Pine Valley and Shinnecock are very much private clubs; anyone looking for a stern challenge can play Pawleys Plantation. (Note: Those who want to play the back tees are asked to seek permission in the pro shop.)
The course and slope ratings for the other popular men’s tees at Pawleys have not changed significantly, although they are uncharacteristically high for a publicly accessible golf course. The Blue Heron tees, typically appropriate for those with handicaps of 6 and less, rate about the same as before, at 73.2 and 145, respectively, compared with a previous 73.7 and 144 (total yardage is 6,549). The White Egret tees, which I played for a few years before I turned 70, have gone from 72.0 and 138 to 71.6 and 140 (6,184 yards); they are suggested for those with handicaps of 6 to 18. I have been playing the Yellow Finch tees this year because I am not hitting the ball much beyond 210 yards off the tee, and their ratings did not move much; the old ratings of 69.2 and 132 are now 69.1 and 130 at 5,560 yards.
However, women who play the Yellow Finch tees from 5,560 yards really saw a jump in their ratings, from 72.7/130 to a whopping 74.3/142. The women’s Redtail Hawk tees at 4,932 yards have also jumped significantly, from an already challenging 70.1 and 122 to 71.4 and 130. By the numbers, Pawleys Plantation is not particularly women “friendly,” although women's league members do not seem to mind.
During a recent visit to celebrate the club’s 30th Anniversary, Jack Nicklaus told members and others at dinner that the course he designed in 1988 would benefit from some changes. For example, as happens with most golf courses over time, greenside bunkers have pulled away from the putting surfaces as the greens themselves have shrunk. He suggested restoring the greens to their original size, something many observers believe will make hitting greens in regulation considerably easier. He also recommended that much of the sand in the huge fairway bunkers be replaced with grass; that would speed up play and also make the game easier for double-digit handicappers.
These are ideas that most of us who play the golf course regularly certainly endorse. But given many of the forced carries to greens, surrounding marshland that is very much in play, and long greens that afford some nasty pin positions, the challenges at Pawleys Plantation will always rival some of the toughest courses in the land.
Jack Nicklaus, the Golden Bear, spent the afternoon and early evening this past Monday at Pawleys Plantation Golf Club, one of his signature designs of the late 1980s, about the time his golf architecture business began to take off. He has been one of the world’s most successful course designers since.
Mr. Nicklaus, as most referred to him during the day, had lunch with the golf club’s owners, Founders International Inc, drove the course he hasn’t seen for 30 years and then spent more than an hour with about 40 children enrolled in the Myrtle Beach area’s First Tee program. Their parents made up a sizable and enthusiastic audience.
The visit was in celebration of our club’s 30th anniversary. One of the most popular golfing destinations on the Grand Strand of Myrtle Beach since its opening in 1988, Pawleys Plantation’s layout has stood the test of time in terms of entertainment and challenge. Early Nicklaus designs like Pawleys put a premium on forced carries over wide expanses of sand and water or, in our club’s case, marshland. The signature par 3 13th, virtually surrounded by marsh with a green smaller than the famous island green at TPC Sawgrass, is the most iconic of the hundreds of holes in the Myrtle Beach area. My fellow members like to refer to it as “the shortest par 5 in Myrtle Beach.” From the regular tees, it plays about 120 yards.
As good and challenging as Pawleys Plantation is, Father Time and Mother Nature have had their way with the course. Greens, which were designed medium small originally by Nicklaus, are now officially “small” after years of aggressive mowing. This is not unusual for golf courses of a certain age. The effect is to pull the greenside bunkers away from the edges of the greens, sometimes by a couple of yards or more. From the fairway, it can appear to a first-time visitor that the Bermuda fringe and rough is actually the green. The illusion forces improperly under-clubbed shots from the fairway. When the course was first opened and in succeeding years, a shot over the bunker would have led to a putt, not a chip.
At a fund-raising dinner at Pawleys Plantation the night of Nicklaus’ visit, he was asked his reaction to his layout 30 years after completion. He validated criticism of the reduced size of the greens, encouraging that the bunkers be pulled closer to the putting surfaces. He also said, rather emphatically, “Get rid of a lot of the sand out there.” Some holes he designed include waste bunkers that are almost 200 yards long and, unlike the greens, they certainly haven’t gotten any smaller. Back in the day, they served as framing for some of the longer holes, but they have always been especially penal for higher handicap players. Pawleys Plantation attracts many buddy golf trips, and it is often painful – and slow -- to play behind such high handicappers, especially after they ignore warnings posted at the 1st and 10th tee boxes about which tees are appropriate for which handicaps.
Nicklaus’ most amusing critique of the course he built was also the most surprising. If he had a specific signature when he first started laying out golf courses, it was to leave small trees in the middle of fairways as directional markers, more than obstructions. At Pawleys Plantation, such trees are in play at the par 4 5th hole, the par 4 9th fairway and the par 5 14th – and they certainly have become larger. Of the tree on #14, Nicklaus said, “Take it down. It shouldn’t be there.”
At age 78, the man who always obsessed about his golf swing has the same mania to improve his course designs. Here’s hoping my golf club’s owners take him up on his offer to bring a very good golf course back to its original outstanding status.
Hurricanes that begin with the letter 'F' – indeed that begin with the letters F-L-O -- have a thing for North Carolina. The strongest storms of the last two decades have been Floyd and Florence. Last month’s Florence created a group of disasters that will take years to clean up, including runaway waste produced by hogs, the carcasses of dead turkeys, and ash, a toxic by-product of coal that overflowed its containers in the eastern part of the state. We recap the storm damage in North Carolina, including an update on a few North Carolina and South Carolina golf communities, in this month’s Home On The Course newsletter, which will mail electronically in the next couple of days.
No place on earth seems totally safe from extreme weather. Sure, you expect it to rain at a moment's notice in Scotland, where I spent 10 days in September, and you certainly expect the wind to blow. But at 100 mph? That is what happened in September in Dundee and other locations across the nation. I made it out of Edinburgh barely 15 minutes before authorities closed the Forth Bridge because of high winds. The previous day, at Dunbar Golf Club, I played in gusts up to 50 mph. There were a few shots where you just could not hit the ball hard enough. It was a unique, and intimidating, experience. More in this month’s Home On The Course. To subscribe, click here.
Jet lag has its compensations. After my return from a 10-day trip to Scotland, I kept falling asleep around 8 pm EDT –- 1 a.m. Edinburgh time –- and waking up between 2 a.m. and 3 a.m. Connecticut time. This, however, was during the Ryder Cup whose TV coverage, as U.S. golf fans know, began at 3 a.m. EDT for the first two days, 6 a.m. on the last day. I got to see it all…painful as it was after the first morning’s set of matches.
It was a sad spectacle for the American side, but sadder yet was the aftermath, which came off as mostly sour grapes, especially from the preternaturally impertinent Patrick Reed. You might recall that after winning a few tournaments by the age of 23, the gifted Reed declared himself one of the five best players in the world. (He was ranked 44th in the world at the time.)
Reed misses Spieth
In the wake of the disastrous Ryder Cup, Reed did not go quietly onto the losers’ bench. He complained after the team press conference about Captain Furyk pairing him with Tiger Woods instead of Jordan Spieth, with whom he had enjoyed a stellar record of success in the two previous Ryder Cups. “We make each other better,” Reed said of his partnerships with Spieth. True love never runs smooth, and Spieth apparently preferred the company of his longtime friend, Justin Thomas. Furyk put them out there together where they ran into the Molinari-Fleetwood buzzsaw.
Reed played mediocre golf with Woods in their first loop around the course and then really spit the bit in match two, obviously spooked by the narrow fairways at Le Golf National, which his golf ball rarely found. (Some observers believe Reed would not have broken 80 on his own ball.) Reed, whose signature attitude is to thumb his nose at hostile crowds, the larger the crowds the better, apparently thought that partnering with the most famous golfer in the world and major gallery magnet didn’t make his game better, and let the world know it. Brooks Koepka explained the U.S. loss much better: "We didn't make the putts. We didn't hit the fairways."
The lonely game
Virtually every competitive professional round on the PGA Tour is played individually, and I don’t believe any pro golfer has complained, publicly at least, that the members of the threesome or foursome they were matched with over the four days of a PGA event failed to make them “better.” As you stand over a shot in team play, you are out there alone, and whether it is Tiger Woods or Jordan Spieth standing on the other side of the fairway, they cannot swing the club for you or make you any better than you are in the moment. All team golf does is apply the pressure that comes with the possibility that you will let others down. A hotshot like Patrick Reed is supposed to thrive on such pressure. He didn’t.
Once you have the ability to make all the shots, golf is almost entirely played between the ears. It was in that few-inch space that Patrick Reed didn’t have it for the team rounds of the Ryder Cup –- and certainly not in his comments after.
I met up with my friend Bob this week at the Crail Golfing Society for a round on the famed Balcomie Links, although not quite as famous as Carnoustie, which Bob, who lives in North Carolina, and his friend Bill played the day before. During our walk on Balcomie, Bob told me that his wife Leonne had started a regimen of walking after not feeling too chipper for a few months. She met a man on the trail who told her he had thrown away all his pills after starting a routine of 10-mile walks every day. That’s quite a commitment if you figure a brisk walk is at five miles per hour. But she tried it and in a short time started feeling a lot better.
Since open-heart surgery two years ago, I have taken a golf cart for virtually every round. But in the run-up to my Scotland trip this last week, I walked a few miles every other day on a tread mill and vowed not to give in to the temptation of taking what the Scottish refer to as a “buggy.” It is embarrassing to toddle around in a golf cart while other 70-somethings are keeping a brisk pace (and there are a lot of older gents walking the Crail courses).
I have now walked five courses this past week, and my iPhone tells me that totals 28 miles (including a couple of miles of non-golf-course walks). I am diabetic, and my blood sugar readings this week have been way lower than typical, and I feel more stamina every day. I can’t wait to get home and walk my local course. I have begun pricing online those battery-powered “trolleys” that eliminate the need to push and pull your bag up hills; you walk along with your clubs, and the battery caddy will never misread a putt for you. The return on investment is probably about 10 rounds given that live caddies, with tips, command at least $80 per round these days (and many of them are of no help reading putts).
I am not ready to commit to the two hours of daily walking that adds up to 10 miles, but I have already demonstrated to myself the benefits of five miles daily. Long live the Scots, literally.