The perfect moment for an investment in a golf community home would be when prices hit absolute bottom nationwide, in every market.  But the housing market does not work that way; housing price movements are local, a consequence of many factors, employment levels chief among them.  When prices hit bottom in one market, they can be still falling or even rising in others.

        Clear Capital, a firm that uses high tech data collection to predict housing market movements, believes that U.S. housing prices will stabilize in 2012, actually rising .2% nationwide, but that individual markets will show marked differences.  According to the Clear Capital data, folks currently living in the Washington, D.C. area, for example, might not want to sell their homes and move until later in the year, since D.C. area prices are forecast to increase 8.3% year over year.  For D.C. area residents contemplating a move to Atlanta, forecasted for the biggest housing price decreases in 2012 (-14.4%), patience could be rewarded especially.

        On the other hand, folks in the Detroit area contemplating a move to Orlando should consider a hasty retreat (if they can sell their home).  Detroit’s housing market will continue to erode, according to Clear Capital, with home prices dropping another 5.6% year over year, while Orlando home prices will jump 11.7%.

        Note: On Thursday, we will release the January edition of our eNewsletter, Home On The Course, which reaffirms the case for home prices hitting bottom in most southern U.S. areas.  We also rate a few of our favorite golf communities for their investment potential.  Sign up today at the top of this page and you will receive a copy of this month’s Home On The Course and all future issues (or if you sign up after we send the newsletter, we will make sure you get a copy).

        The days are dwindling down to a precious few for The Cliffs Communities founder and mega-landowner Jim Anthony to maintain ownership of his developments.  A year ago he formed an entity called ClubCo to accept a $64 million bailout from more than 500 of his 2,000 members; he is now facing a default of an $8 million interest payment on the loan.  And, separately, his real estate company, Cliffs Communities Inc., is also facing default, according to some residents who spoke on condition of anonymity.  Behind the scenes, John Reed (he developed upscale golf communities in Bluffton, SC, including Colleton River, Berkeley Hall and Belfair) is reportedly bidding to pick up some or all of Anthony’s real estate interests; a second developer is rumored to be making a play for the land as well.  Regardless of who winds up bidding successfully for the property, the fetching price will be pennies on the dollar compared to what the lots were valued at just a few years ago. And it is likely to take a bankruptcy proceeding to force Anthony to turn his back on his legacy. His former staffers and residents agree the developer is a stubborn man, not given to accepting distasteful medicine, no matter how good for him.

CliffsValley7tee

Cliffs Valley (7th hole shown) is one of the most mature of the Cliffs communities and should be minimally affected by financial issues.

 

        It no longer seems a matter of if Anthony is forced out at The Cliffs, but when.  And after he goes, the question is how The Cliffs might reorganize to restore at least part of its lofty reputation and property values.  Much will depend on who buys the land and who buys the amenities, which include the six golf clubs (Gary Player’s Mountain Park would be #7).  That could be either one group of investors, or separate groups for the land and the amenities. Another possibility is that the communities -– some completed, some hardly formed and some in between –-will be bundled into smaller packages along geographic lines.  The communities adjacent to Lake Keowee, for example, might be consolidated into one group, those in the Greenville area (Glassy, Valley, Mountain Park) into another, and Walnut Cove near Asheville, NC, into its own.  Way up in the air, figuratively as well as literally, is High Carolina, the undeveloped site of Tiger Woods’ first American golf design and the symbol of Jim Anthony’s over-the-top investments in the Cliffs’ package of amenities; recently, a former Anthony senior staffer told us that the developer paid the unproven, architecturally speaking, Woods a $22 million fee to build the course, considerably higher than most published estimates.  Even if that overstates the true figure by, say, $10 million, it may explain why Anthony seemed to stalk the fallen star, showing up at Woods’ press conference confessional after disclosure of the star's adulterous behavior.  The religious Anthony may have forgiven Tiger, but he wasn’t about to forget how much he had invested in the golfer.

        Cliffs property owners are smart and wealthy folks but they face some daunting and perhaps divisive months ahead.  One-quarter of the clubs’ members provided Anthony with the $64 million loan, and there is worry that the interests of those with skin in the game and the 75% who sat on the sidelines may diverge substantially, setting up confrontations that will result in gridlock on some big decisions (an upstate South Carolina version, perhaps, of the U.S. Congress v. White House model).  Any differences are likely to be exacerbated by foreclosure proceedings that affect the operations of the clubs, which could close a few days a week or for longer periods; in that case, expect some battles over which clubs close and when.  Given the rural locations of some of the clubs, especially in the Keowee area, furloughed Cliffs employees could spike local unemployment numbers; don’t expect any help from the state, which is currently governed by a strong Tea Party supporter.

CliffsWhoaSign

The Cliffs renowned portfolio of amenities include six golf clubs, wellness and fitness centers and an equestrian center.

 

        Property owners who have waited for things to clarify before building a home at The Cliffs may see clearly that their future is somewhere else, and they may join the numerous other owners who already have their home sites on the market.  That, of course, could further depress prices in the unformed communities, although The Cliffs at Glassy, Cliffs Valley, and perhaps Walnut Cove and Keowee Vineyard should remain fairly stable.

        Of course, some investors always seem to benefit from carnage in the markets and, at The Cliffs, the big winners could be whatever investor group steps in to buy all the available land and/or amenities at a deep discount, as well as those individuals looking for an upscale place to retire or build a second home at a bargain basement price.  Proceed with caution now, but expect some substantial deals in the coming months.

CliffsChapel

Cliffs developer Jim Anthony took the most beautiful piece of property at his Glassy development and built a chapel on it.