The latest vacancy rate data from the U.S. Census Bureau are ugly.  Nationwide, the rate rose to 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2007, up from 2.7% in the third quarter.  In formerly hot markets, the numbers are considerably worse.  In Orlando, for example, 7.4% of all homes are unoccupied, the highest such rate in the nation.  Miami/Ft. Lauderdale (4.4%), Las Vegas (4.9%), and Phoenix (3.7%) are bad too.
    The story of how these markets got to this point is well documented.

Insist on a contingency with the developer that covers you in the event a certain percentage of the community's homes are rented.

With lots of funny money pouring into these hot markets, developers rushed to build condos and planned communities, speculators and others moved in to buy the units (with zero or a few percentage-point deposits), additional demand evaporated, inventories rose to glut levels, and prices consequently dropped.  Since the speculators had very little skin in the game, they bailed, leaving banks and developers holding the empty bags, and depressing prices.  Increasing foreclosures added accelerant to the problem.
    Many of the vacant units have been rented which, on the face of it, would
These are desperate times, and these are desperate developers.

seem a good thing.  But developers are so desperate for a little cash flow that they are renting homes in their fledgling communities at such bargain-basement prices that they are attracting people with no investment in the local neighborhood.  In markets like Orlando, vacant actually may be a better alternative than rented.  
    "[Our] neighborhood was going downhill as people had been buying the homes and renting them out to some real [expletive deleted]," said one former Orlando resident on a real estate discussion board, congratulating himself on selling his home in 2005.  He complained about "people who do auto repairs in the street in front of their house and then throw used motor oil in the grass in their front yard..."
    That is certainly an extreme case, but hints at an unintended consequence of filling vacant homes with renters.  If you are contemplating the purchase of a home in a new community in one of the areas hit by high vacancy rates, the advice here is to proceed with caution.  You might insist on a contingency with the developer that covers you in the event a certain percentage of the community's homes are rented.  That may have seemed farfetched just a few years ago, but these are desperate times, and these are desperate developers.

    The Wall Street Journal has a recap of the national vacancy rate crisis, including an interactive map that shows rates in selected metro areas.  Click here to see the article. 

    During a recession in the late 1970s, I worked for the J.C. Penney Company in its corporate office in New York City.  I was interviewing a buyer for underwear and socks for an article in the company newspaper.  He told me that, during a recession, the Penney stores loaded up on things like cosmetics and expensive socks (expensive, at least, for socks).  Experience had taught the buyers that, during a recession, people buy more fancy socks, as well as perfume,

For anyone with just a little cash, instant gratification is a small down payment away.

than even when times are better.  The logic was simple:  People suffering economic hardship can always afford a bottle of perfume or a pair of $10 socks, and buying them makes them feel better, as if maybe they aren't in such bad shape after all.
    It made a lot of sense to me at the time and, recalling that eureka moment over the last few days, I considered how it might apply to the housing market.  Everything is relative, and for those of us who are hurting but have some disposable cash socked away, this may be a good time to make ourselves feel better.  I wrote the other day about one of our readers who just bought three pieces of property in the North Carolina hills as an investment (which will make him feel a lot better if they appreciate the 20% he expects over the next three years).  He paid around $90,000 for one of them at The Coves, just north of Hickory, NC; not too far down the road, the equivalent-sized lots at The Cliffs Communities or one of the other high-end communities near Asheville with a similar view are priced as much as five times that.
    Developers, especially those offering lots in recently opened communities, are eager to make deals to support their cash flow needs.  The Carolinas are the hottest states in the southeast in terms of population inflows, and cities like Charlotte and Raleigh have held their own in terms of housing values.  When the housing market does regain its footing - our guess here is not before 2010 -- the migrations from north to south, and especially to the Carolinas, will intensify.  For anyone with just a little cash, instant gratification is a small down payment away. 

    Baby boomers on the cusp of retirement might want to consider making a calculated investment now.   That generation - my generation - has always wanted what it wanted when it wanted it.  This would be a good time for developers to target that group with special deals.  Ultimately, it might make everyone feel better.