What happens in Vegas may not stay there
    It appears we may have more than Angelo Mozilo, Countrywide Financial and their ilk to blame for much of the housing crisis.  According to today's real estate update from the Wall Street Journal, as the housing market started to show signs of tanking, many builders and developers offered incentives so tempting that the housing boom was artificially prolonged.  Some experts believe that may have eventually deepened the crisis.

    Allegedly the developers offered incentives worth up to $100,000, including cars and other toys, all in an effort not to cut prices, something developers live in fear of (imagine what the guy who paid full price the week before will think when his neighbor buys in for 25% less, and imagine the message it sends to the market).  
    The Las Vegas division of giant homebuilder Centex, the Journal reports, paid off car loans, mortgage payments, and credit card bills to entice home owners to purchase Centex homes.  Mortgage lenders knew nothing of these deals.  
    Apparently what happens in Vegas won't necessarily stay in Vegas; the FBI is investigation Centex and others who offered such incentives and deceived the mortgage companies.

One way to Pebble Beach
    For those who want to live in the neighborhood of Pebble Beach for the rest of their lives, the famed "House on the Hill" has come on the market.  Also known as Casa Ladera, the 1930 Mediterranean estate offers a 7,500 square foot home and separate guest quarters with dramatic ocean views, all on three acres.  It is being offered for $17.5 million, but certainly the owners would be willing to knock off a few thousand at least, which you can then parlay into green fees at Pebble (now approaching $500).  No word if the real estate agent with the listing can get you into Cypress Point if you buy the House on the Hill, but let me know if you are interested (insert smiley face here), and I will see what I can do.

 

Trump's new tenant
    Good news for Ed McMahon, Johnny Carson's famous foil.  You may know that Mr. McMahon's six bedroom, multi-million dollar home in California has been on the brink of foreclosure for months, and that the octogenarian was getting close to being thrown out on the street.  But the good news is that a white knight - well, okay, a blond knight -- has burst onto the scene to save the day by offering to purchase the mansion and lease it back to Mr. McMahon.  The deal isn't quite done, but if all goes well, McMahon's new landlord will be Donald Trump.  Despite Mr. Trump's penchant for doing whatever keeps his name out front, we are willing to say this is a nice thing Mr. Trump has done.  However, the statement from his PR machine is bizarre, puffing up Mr. Trump at poor Mr. McMahon's expense.
    "Even a man who hadn't had such a great career," Mr. Trump said in a statement released by his office, according to the Journal, "shouldn't have this happen to them in their later years."
    Mr. Trump's one hand giveth, and the other hand taketh away.

Caveat emptor
    This year's cycle of LiveSouth shows begins in North Central New Jersey at the Parsippany Hilton September 5 thru 7.  The shows feature dozens of communities in one place, and many of them feature golf courses.  It is a great place to collect brochures and ask a lot of questions about specific golf communities, but not the best place to find totally unbiased information.  The planned communities pay $5,000 or more for the privilege of promoting themselves at the shows, and the representatives are there to encourage you to visit their properties.  Go by all means, but understand that the photographs are beautiful, the sales representatives are enthusiastic, and all the places seem like paradise.  Oh, any if you leave them your name, count on a full mailbox and the occasional phone call.

    If you do visit a LiveSouth show and see some places you like, especially those with golf courses, let me know and I will give you an unbiased, objective opinion (use the Contact Us button at the top of the page).  Upcoming LiveSouth show stops include Reston, VA (9/12-14) and Melville, NY (9/19-21).

    For the best part of two decades, most Americans said, "I'll have what he's having" when Alan Greenspan testified before Congress.  Most of us did quite well during Greenspan's chairmanship of the Federal Reserve, thank you
Am I the only one who thinks it unseemly for the guy who left the steering wheel just before the ship hit the iceberg to criticize his successor so publicly?

very much.  When he left his post with the economy still on what appeared to be firm footing, it was sad to see him go.  Let him have his victory lap and go gently into that good night, I remember thinking; after all, he was leaving us with an economy so robust that some felt they could drop their life savings on a dozen un-built condos in places like Miami and Las Vegas.
    Well, we know that the chairman's sense of timing was impeccable, if a tad suspicious.  But there has been nothing gentle about Greenspan's "retirement."  Unlike past Presidents who do a pretty good job of not criticizing their successors, regardless of their party affiliation, Greenspan has not been able to restrain himself regarding current Fed policy.  His latest salvo, the other day, savaged his former organization for throwing a lifeline to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
    Most of us are not qualified to understand economic theory and the Fed's decisions in all their exquisite complexities. (Although could any of us have done a worse job of managing Fannie and Freddie?).  But am I the only one who thinks it unseemly for the guy who left the steering wheel just before the ship hit the iceberg to criticize his successor so publicly?
    If nothing else, Mr. Greenspan is a master of timing.  And bitter though he may be about being out of the "arena," his predictions about the economy
There is a lot of unsold inventory in the southeast at discounts to both past and future prices.

are worth listening to, even if his critiques of current policy may be tainted by some psychological need for continued relevance.  The other day, even as he savaged the Fed for its benevolent treatment of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, he predicted that the housing market would rebound next year.  
    "Home prices in the U.S. are likely to start to stabilize or touch bottom sometime in the first half of 2009," Greenspan told the Wall Street Journal.  He qualified his opinion a bit, adding that "prices could continue to drift lower through 2009 and beyond."
     He has not been wrong often, and his prognostication is worth listening to, maybe even acting on, even if it bumps against the logic of increasing foreclosures and joblessness rates and falling home prices.  I don't have the economic charts in front of me, and I wouldn't know what to do with them if I did, but I do have 61 years of being part of the baby boomer generation, and here is my take:
    Many baby boomers have deferred selling their primary homes despite deep desires to move to the next phase of their lives in a new, more relaxed environment (say, a golf community).  They remember when their homes were worth so much more just five years ago.  They have built a psychological barrier for themselves, one that says, "I worked hard for this home and I am not going to sell it for less than it is worth."  Only a few cold-hearted financial executives among us can reconcile that our houses are worth what someone will pay for them, not what we think they are worth.  
    But baby boomers want what they want when they want it - remember, I speak with some personal authority here.  And if Mr. Greenspan is right about stabilizing prices, next year or maybe the year after, baby boomer owners of many of these homes will look at the modest increase in their house value and the psychological barriers will come down.  We will pat ourselves on the back for having waited out the crisis, we will take a percentage point or two more than we think we could have gotten a year earlier, and off we will go.  This is more about ego than it is about money, especially for those who have owned their homes for a decade or more.  They are way ahead of the game.
    If Greenspan's first instinct is correct, and if my little pop psychology is as well, then it is likely prices in the southeast will move up as quickly, probably quicker, than elsewhere.  Seacoast and mountains, what most boomers have dreamed about for years, are abundant in this part of the country, and there is a lot of unsold inventory priced at a discount to past and future prices.  For a certain period of time, boomers with the stomach to take just a little less than their primary homes are worth will have the pick of the litter at some nice prices.
    If I am wrong, blame Greenspan.  He will blame Bernanke anyway.