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Tiger Woods' first American course design near Asheville will join eight other golf courses under The Cliffs Communities umbrella, including Tom Fazio's layout at Keowee Vineyard (above).

 

    Tiger Woods officially broke ground this past weekend on his only U.S. golf course design, at the Cliffs at High Carolina, near Asheville, NC.  After pushing shovels into the area around the location of the future 18th green, Tiger and Cliffs developer Jim Anthony were interviewed against the background of the Blue Ridge Mountains by CNBC reporter Jane Wells.
    Mr. Anthony volunteered that sales at The Cliffs were off 20% so far this year.  However, Tiger's presence at High Carolina helped sell 45 lots yesterday at an average $1 million each,

Jim Anthony, a wellness buff, will continue to talk the walk for Tiger's HIgh Carolina course.

keeping the Cliffs financial engine well-oiled.  Presumably, all 45 committed to The Cliffs' $150,000 initiation fee and $650 per month dues. (Counting Tiger's course, membership confers full access to nine courses.)  Neither man would comment on Tiger's design fees nor if his deal with the Cliffs includes a percentage of property sales at High Carolina.  It is a safe bet that his architectural fee for The Cliffs course will be less than the reported $25 million the fledgling designer is receiving for his initial commission in Dubai.
    When Tiger's assignment at High Carolina was first reported, the course was to be "walking only."  Yesterday, the two men confirmed that High Carolina be "walkable," Tiger indicating that the maximum elevation change on the course will be 350 feet.  That's the equivalent of a 30-story building, if I do the math correctly, leaving one to wonder just how many Cliffs members will take the two up on their offer to walk the course.  You can be sure, though, that Mr. Anthony, who emphasizes "wellness" in his developments and has spent many millions on fitness centers, walking trails, and other encouragements to a healthier life, will continue to talk the walk.
    Tiger spoke briefly about his personal satisfaction with the Obama victory and added how proud his late father Earl would have been.
     "He would have cried," said Tiger.
    The seven-minute interview with Tiger and Jim Anthony is at CNBC.com [click here].  There is also accompanying text from Ms. Wells as well as a separate video of her taking a tumble during her walk of the course with the designer.  She isn't the only one who has trouble keeping up with Tiger, his bum knee and all.    



    So when will we reach the bottom of the housing market and, therefore, the absolute best time to buy?  The honest answer is, "Who knows?"  All the variables, like unemployment figures, foreclosure rates, the financial markets, a new President, such esoteric financial instruments as credit default swaps, and events we don't even yet know about conspire to make predictions impossible.  But that doesn't keep some economy and housing pundits from speculating.
    "More affordable prices, pent-up demand, incentives on new homes, fewer housing starts and expected declines in interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages also should help ease the crisis [by mid 2009], said David Seiders, chief economist of the [National Builders Association]," according to the Wall Street Journal.
    "The converted bears, as well as the panicked sellers desperate to bail
Like meteorologists, economists and financial pundits blame bad predictions on events brilliant minds like theirs could not possibly foresee.

out and nervous buyers afraid to jump in, will be dead wrong nine months from now, when housing prices bottom.  In fact, I'll call the precise date of the housing-market turnaround.  It will begin on June 30, 2009," wrote the hyperkinetic Jim Cramer in New York magazine in September.
    Economists and financial program hosts are like meteorologists who tell you the sun is going to shine one day and then spend the next day explaining why they were wrong.  (The fault was not theirs but rather some occlusion that no one even as brilliant as they could possibly foresee.)
    The fact is they don't know, you don't know and I don't know when prices will begin to stabilize.  The only thing for sure is that someday they will. Here are a few hints if you have your eyes on a particular market:
  • Regularly check unemployment figures there; most likely they have increased in recent months, but as soon as they start to stabilize, housing prices will follow.
  • Check housing inventory numbers; as the median time it takes to sell homes in a market drops, look for home prices to begin to rise. If you are working with an agent, have them get you the data for individual neighborhoods or golf communities in which you might be interested.
  • Many vacation and retirement home markets do not have major foreclosure issues, but some of the larger communities may have a few homes in default. Keep an eye on them, as foreclosures will drag down prices in the immediate area until they are flushed out of the system.
  • Do not rely on average or median prices in an entire market; a market is composed of zip codes, and zip codes composed of neighborhoods, and it is the prices within a neighborhood that you want to compare, even down to the street level.
  • Do not go it alone in scouting out properties. Engage a "buyer's representative," someone who will represent you in your pursuit of a home. There are different types of these agreements, but the most popular is the "exclusive representation" agreement, which obligates you to pay the agent a commission if he/she finds you a house. Keep in mind that, in many cases, their commission will be paid by the seller; but even if it is not, your agent's negotiating skills could save you enough on the purchase price, especially in this market, to more than pay for their services.
  • Finally, understand that if you wander into a golf community or an open house somewhere and show interest in a property, the agent you speak with will likely be working for the seller. The agent cannot possibly secure the lowest possible price for you and the highest possible price for the seller. Your interests may be secondary. That is another good reason to identify an agent to represent your interests solely.
If you have any questions about particular markets, communities or working with real estate agents, please do not hesitate to contact me.