Some modest rays of sunny optimism broke through the clouds of despair in the housing market this past week after a few generally decent reports on the economy.  Bad momentum, like unemployment figures and housing starts, slowed significantly.  Good momentum, like the stock market, hit the accelerator pedal.  Puffed up Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave Wall Street -- and the media -- all the excuses they needed to return, at least for now, to those hopeful (and hypeful) glory days of yesteryear.  Although one week does not exactly make for a trend, those who buy and sell properties for a living, and those private owners who do so for lifestyle reasons, are all cheering for more.  Be wary, though, of those who cheer too loudly.

Media overestimate...again

    Like extras in Night of the Living Dead, the hypesters re-emerged from the woods this week to celebrate.  Consider this little piece of premature, hyperbolic headlining from USA Today:  "More homes get multiple offers; downturn may be nearing end."   Actually read the story that follows the headline and you discover that those multiple offers are mostly for homes in foreclosure, essentially speculators bottom-fishing bids, trying to take advantage of those poor banks that are saddled with the white elephants.
    Adds an official with the California Association of Realtors elsewhere inthe article, "When you begin to see people willing to fight for a property, that's a good sign.  We are beginning to see the beginning of the end of a disaster time."   Oh, really.  Have you noticed your state's unemployment rate at more than 11%?  What about the elimination of many state services because your government was on the brink of receivership?  Exactly who is going to buy these homes?  If you are looking for balanced assessments of the market, never, ever listen to an official of any real estate trade association.  They exist for one reason -- to drive business for their members.

Read much about the swine flu "pandemic" the last few days?

    Take with a lump of salt anything you read in the mainstream media about housing, and for a few reasons.  These are the same folks who totally missed the credit default swaps and sub-prime debacles?  They will only report things they understand, and they don't understand much and will not do the necessary research.  Like healthcare and any other subject whose complexity requires more than a junior high school education, the big time media missed the roots of the housing mess until they were obvious to everyone on Main Street.  Instead, we get sensational faux-disaster scenarios like Y2K and Swine Flu.  
    Newspapers have made themselves irrelevant.  If you are a careful reader, many mainstream articles appear to be written by interns, not seasoned, specialized professionals.  Stories about real estate include comments from industry experts who have a vested interest in the market, such as officials at the National Association of Realtors the media count on time after time.  Comments are no substitute for facts yet, typically, the only facts the media serve up are those from press releases from, you guessed it, the National Association of Realtors or other housing-hype sources.

The incredible shrinking newspaper

    Seasoned, professional journalists are leaving the print media in droves, many on their own, many without a choice.  My hometown paper, the Hartford Courant, has fired most of its reporters; the paper I pick up in my driveway every morning has shrunk by more than 50% in the last year.  Last week, parent company The Tribune Company let the managing editor go, and another quit in protest.  Big, respected papers like the Boston Globe are on the brink of extinction.  Any pro talented enough to produce a thoughtful, well-researched article has gone on to a new career or to an online media job (a few, sadly, have wound up on television as pundits).  Back-benchers are now writing (and editing) the stories that many of us count on as guidance for important decisions, like buying or selling a home.  
    For the most helpful information on the real estate market, look way beyond the media, to government data and a few blogs you learn to trust over time.  Seek out competing points of view, and look to the logic of the arguments, not the conclusions.  Look for as many relevant charts as your eyes can handle.   Then count on the only person whose judgment you can really trust -- yourself.

Fans will gather around the 18th hole at Kingsmill's River Course on Sunday to cheer home the victor at the Michelob Ultra LPGA event.  Lorena Ochoa led after yesterday's first round, with a 7-under par 64.

...but real men won't be disappointed in the golf

    In the course of a couple of years, the River Course at the Kingsmill Resort in Williamsburg, VA, went from a brawny and difficult layout to one that could be played and enjoyed by virtually ever type of golfer -- high and low handicapper, male and female.  Pete Dye, whose difficult Stadium Course at Sawgrass will be featured this weekend at the PGA's Player's Championship, softened up the River Course in 2004.  And this weekend also, the course that once hosted an annual tour stop on the PGA is playing host to the LPGA's Michelob Ultra Open.

Kingsmill's River Course an ego booster

    I played the River Course a year ago, and it appeared to be especially friendly for average male and female golfers and modestly challenging from the men's tees for my 10 handicap.  From just 6,300 yards, I can understand why the lady pros tore it up in the first round yesterday, Lorena Ochoa carding a tournament leading 64, 7 under par.  Forty-five players finished under par on day one.  As I wrote here one year ago, "the River course is not tough but it is thoroughly enjoyable."  (You can read my full golf course review by clicking here.)  Although plenty of bunkers frame the large Dye greens, thinly struck approach shots still have the chance to bound up and onto the large greens.
    If I have any criticism of the River Course, the only one of the three at Kingsmill that I had the chance to play, it is that the cart paths come into play on some holes.  Of course, Kingsmill is a resort, as well as a residential community, and certain compromises must be made in the name of speedy play.  For their $30,000 "deposit" (most of it refundable upon departure), members do not want to endure five-hour rounds behind lollygagging guests who may be playing one of their few rounds of the year.  Putting the cart paths closer to the field of play cut some time from a high-handicapper's round, at least in theory.

Latest price updates on Kingsmill homes

    Kingsmill offers an entire range of real estate options, from town homes (villas) and "resort condominiums" to single-family residences, some quaint patio homes on small lots and some of the estate variety.  Generally speaking, condos begin in the low to mid $300s, although they can reach the $500s for views of the wide and impressive James River, which gives the River Course its name.  Town homes are the most reasonably priced segment of the market at Kingsmill, with prices beginning in the mid $200s (a current listing for an 1,854 square foot 3 BR, 2 ½ BA unit is $240,000).  One of the choicest patio homes in the resort, which looks down on the 13th green of the River Course and features more than 2,500 square feet, is listed at $659,900.  If you can compromise a little on the view and space, other single-family homes, most on larger lots, start in the mid $300s.  Building lots begin in the $300s, prices that would seem to make the re-sale homes particularly good buys (e.g. that $659,000 home cited above would be priced at about $125 per square foot, after subtraction of land costs, comparably low for quality construction).
    To encourage sales, Kingsmill Realty is offering a 20% discount on club membership if you purchase a home through one of its agents.

More excellent golf at Kingsmill and just outside the gates

    The other two courses at Kingsmill, The Plantation (Arnold Palmer) and The Woods (Curtis Strange), provide alternative golfing experiences for club members and resort guests.  Reviewers in the latest Zagat's guide to "America's Top Golf Courses" gave The Plantation and Woods courses each a rating of 23 out of 30, three points behind the ratings for the River Course.  The Woods is especially refreshing in that its fairways and greens are beyond any home sites at Kingsmill, giving the layout the feel of a private, unaffiliated course.
    The most highly rated course in Williamsburg, the Gold Course at the multi-layout Golden Horseshoe, is perennially rated one of the best public access courses in the state of Virginia (Zagat surveyors gave it a 28).  The Green Course at Golden Horseshoe is also an area favorite.  Further afield, fans of the late architect Mike Strantz will find some of his most imaginative work at Royal New Kent and Stonehouse, two courses that golfers seem to either love or hate for their blind shots and golf-on-steroids approach to design.  Those unafraid of intimidating layouts should try Colonial Heritage, a difficult Arthur Hills design that, oddly, is smack in the middle of an age-restricted community.  I was 60 years old when I played it, and felt 70 by the end.

Governors Land, the private club alternative in Williamsburg

    Williamsburg can lay claim to being America's first tourist destination, given both its history and self-awareness of it.  The town is set up to accommodate a large influx of those seeking to get in touch with Colonial America and the nation's roots.  Golf course and resort developers were conscious of this and have always opened their courses to public and resort traffic.  The one island of private golf in the area is Governors Land which, like Kingsmill, is bounded by the wide expanse of the James River.  At just six miles from the center of town, Governors Land is near, and yet feels so far, from the action.
    The Two Rivers course at Governors Land, designed by Tom Fazio, is not unlike the River Course at Kingsmill in that it won't overtax the modestly skilled golfer but will certainly provide a pleasant four hours.  A few of its finishing holes almost bump up against the river but are buffered by customary large Fazio bunkers; accept for a touch of the river close by the side of the 18th green, the only hazard the water provides is as a distraction from the swing.
    Single-family homes, all that are available at Governors Land, start around $500,000.  Homes with views of the river and golf course exceed $1 million.  For those few hedge fund managers who exited the market at just the right time, a 22,000 square foot estate home on 10 riverfront acres is currently listed for $8.9 million.

Living in Williamsburg

    If you like being on permanent vacation and in touch with history, and don't mind sharing some of your space with tourists or wearing a sweater in winter -- okay, a jacket as well -- Williamsburg is worth considering as a retirement or vacation spot.  With many excellent and accessible daily fee golf courses in the area, you will not feel compelled to join any of them to have an active golfing life.  Williamsburg is a charming town, with a well-preserved downtown area and small university, William & Mary, at its core (a nice program of courses for post-grads is offered).  I was especially impressed with the road system in and around town; as if overly conscious years ago about the possibilities of tourist infestations, the roads are more than ample to handle the significant increase in new homes over recent decades, as well as the tour buses.  
     The Town Center just outside the city not only provides plenty of shopping and dining opportunities, but integrates residences and offices.  Golfers inclined to work and/or shop where they live won't burn more than a gallon of gas for access to any of the excellent golf courses just a few miles away.
       
If Williamsburg sounds like your kind of place, let me know and I will provide you with much more in the way of research and opinion -- at no cost or obligation to you.

The James River comes into play at Tom Fazio's Two Rivers course at Governors Land only on the 18th hole.