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The lot prices adjacent to the holes at the Avalon Golf Club outside Knoxville, TN, were so reasonably priced that temptation almost got the better of me.  

 

    I have been oh so tempted to invest in residential real estate over the years.  I recall a piece of property about two stories above one of the fairways at the Avalon Golf Club near Knoxville, TN.  It appealed to me on a number of levels -- great views of the course and out to the hills beyond; 15 minutes from an up-and-coming city; and it was cheap (I recall the almost ½ acre lot was listed for less than $80,000).  It had "great investment" written all over it.  Another time, sipping a beer in the clubhouse at Mountain Air near Asheville, NC, watching planes land on the mountaintop airplane runway that bisected the golf course below, I drifted off in contemplation of a substantial investment there, and to dream (believe me, it was only a fantasy) of owning a plane.  And I've been tempted at other times in other places as well.
    I sleep better at night today because I didn't pull the trigger on any of the properties I've been excited about.  This is where a level-headed spouse comes in especially handy; I've returned from trips all pumped up about a golf course and real estate and then have been reeled back to earth by compelling logic, like "What do we need another piece of property for?"  Indeed.
    Now before my friends scream "Hypocrite!" I need to ‘fess up that we do own two properties in addition to our primary home in Connecticut.  That is one more real estate investment than we need.  But, as Woody Allen once said, "Guilty...with an explanation."   The properties are within a quarter mile of each other in Pawleys Island, SC, inside the gates of Pawleys Plantation, where we expect to make our retirement home in a few years.  One is a condo we use for vacations now and one a lot that we can build on later if we choose.   When we finally make the choice, we will almost assuredly sell the one we don't use.
    People who treat a house as something other than shelter are courting disaster, and not just their own.  These "lousy surfers" catch a wave at the top, with their mortgage brokers, friends or relatives along for the ride.  Halfway down, the surfer gets thrown off and the others just ride the wave to the bottom.  I can't feel sorry for lenders like that whining multi-millionaire hypocrite Angelo Mozzillo of Countrywide Financial who gave shovels of money away to people clearly without the means to repay; some were even in bankruptcy, according to reports. 

    But I do wonder how many parents out there have ruined their retirements because their kid hit them up for money on a can't miss deal on a too-good-to-be-true, never-to-be built condo in Miami.   

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Home prices in the Austin, TX, area are expected to be fairly stable over the coming five years, good news for owners adjacent to the River Place Country Club.

 

    Economists who track the housing market make their predictions based in part on the ratio of rents to home prices.  When the ratio between the two gets out of whack, there is a natural, historic tendency to move back toward equilibrium.  At the moment in most U.S. markets, the ratio is way out of whack, and the only way to regain equilibrium is for home prices to drop, some dramatically, even as rents rise to meet them.
    Fortune magazine's web site is currently displaying an interesting chart of home and rental prices in 54 U.S. metro areas.  It uses the median prices for "upscale" homes, those that sell for roughly twice that of the market's median price.  If the median price in a market is $200,000, then the upscale example in Fortune's chart is $400,000.
    The chart shows the ratio of sale prices to rent prices for similar homes in an area, the predicted changes in both (on a percentage basis) in order to achieve equilibrium in the next five years, and how the median prices of the homes are expected to change over that time.
    Only seven of the 54 markets' homes will increase in price over the next five years, according to the Fortune calculations, and only one by as much as 10 percent (9.9% actually).  Cleveland, whose upscale median price for homes is indicated at $249,000, is expected to reach $273,000 in five years

Only seven of the 54 markets' homes will increase in price over the next five years years.

(barring any substantially worse or better news about the U.S. economy).  The only other metro markets expected to rise in price over the next five years:  Indianapolis (7.3%), Detroit (7.1), Cincinnati (5.8), Greater Kansas City (1.6), Dallas/Ft. Worth (1.5) and Houston (1.4).
    According to the Fortune chart, the only southern areas where home prices will drop less than double-digit percentages are New Orleans (-2.1%) and Austin (-4.4) (Note:  The December issue of the HomeOnTheCourse Community Guide will feature an overview of Austin and its golfing communities.)  The metro markets in the worst shape are Orlando (-34.2%), Miami (-32.2), the East Bay of San Francisco (-31), and Tampa (-28).  If you live in Baltimore (-27.8%) and have an eye toward moving to, say, Raleigh (-14.7), doing so sooner might be better than later, from a purely financial standpoint.
    You will find the chart for the 54 metro areas at the Fortune web site (click here).