I made a rookie mistake a week ago, a blunder unbecoming a veteran of golf playing on the Carolinas coast.  I assumed that, as a single, I would have no problem booking a tee time the day before I intended to play at one of the four courses at Ocean Ridge Plantation, the sprawling community about a half hour north of Myrtle Beach and near Sunset Beach, NC.  The earliest tee time available was 2 p.m., way too late for my schedule.
    You would think that on a property with four courses, a single could sneak out for a round in the morning.  But Ocean Ridge's layouts, all named for jungle cats, have been getting great buzz in Carolinas golfing circles and, more to the point,leopardchase5thyardagebook.jpg this was mid April, the single busiest golf week of the year near and along the Grand Strand.
    I did get a chance for a tour of Ocean Ridge with a preferred local real estate agent (let me know if you want to contact him) and the acquisition of about five pounds of marketing material, including a yardage book for the most recent course in the community, Leopard's Chase.  The course has received considerable publicity, including a top-10 designation for best new public course in Golf Digest.  That is why Leopard's Chase is currently commanding up to $173 for green fees, two to three times more than the community's other three courses.

    The par 72 Tim Cate design combines generous landing areas with forced carries and features the kind of sculpted scruffiness that provides a links land feel for those who dream of playing in Scotland.  Of course, at four miles from the ocean, Leopard's Chase can only claim to be a good representation, faux links.  But given $14 million to build the course, Cate, who is Ocean Ridge's "house designer" and was mentored by the respected Willard Byrd, had the tools he needed to approximate the feel of the Old Sod.
    Cate's other tracks at Ocean Ridge are well regarded and heavily trafficked.

The 18 holes at Jaquar's Lair will be carved from two 18-hole layouts at the former Angel's Trace.

I've played Tigers Eye a few times in past years and thought it did a good job of  combining challenging approach shots over large expanses of sand with the kind of open fairways almost mandatory in a course that appeals to daily fee resort players and members.  Cate also designed the slightly less regarded Panther's Run; the venerable Mr. Byrd, who has designed scores of courses up and down the east coast, contributed Lion's Paw.
    The big news in golf at Ocean Ridge, however, is the impending new 18-hole course called Jaguar's Lair, another Cate design.  The developers of Ocean Ridge purchased the former Angel's Trace course and its 36 holes, giving Cate the generous task of compressing two courses down to one and, of course, leaving some nice space for houses adjacent to the new track.  As is the case in any golf community, real estate sales pay for the golf course.  The course is slated to open in 2009.

    Although Ocean Ridge's golf courses are open to anyone, memberships are available but confusing in the way they are set up.  For example, you can join the original three courses (not the fourth, Leopard's Chase) for a $15,000 initiation fee.  Or, for $20,000, you can belong to all four, but you will need to be a property owner in certain neighborhoods within the community (the ones where the

Some member plans include green fees and cart.

developers still have a number of lots and homes for sale).  In terms of dues, they seem reasonable enough, the most expensive being a "family" program for all four courses at $4,535 per year, or less than $400 per month.  But that includes green fees for "one member and one qualifying family member."  I am not sure that meets most definitions of "family" membership.

    For those who intend to play a lot of golf, Ocean Ridge offers programs that include cart and green fees.  The most expensive plan of all is $8,300 annually but, again, pays for just two members from a family.  You can opt for special rates for additional "qualifying" family members if you want to pay additional annual charges (or you could just pay the daily fee when you need to).  Everything is way more confusing than it needs to be and any but the six-round-a-week player might want to compare membership costs against the daily fees, which range from $45 to $195 per round, depending on time of year and course.  It could save money and headaches.

   Coming Tomorrow:  The rest of the story on Ocean Ridge.
   

 queensharbourhomesneargreen.jpg

Jacksonville, FL, median home prices are down more than 10% in the last year.  Prices for homes in the golf and boating community of Queens Harbour begin in the $400s.

 

    Professor Robert Shiller, he of the noted and useful Standard & Poors Case-Shiller Index, gave a speech in New Haven, CT, the other day (story in Hartford Courant).  He predicted that home prices nationally could sink 30% before the current housing crisis abates.  Although many economists and certainly the Pollyannas at the National Association of Realtors do not agree with the good professor, his prediction is not to be trifled with.  The man was unerring in his prognostication of the dot.com bust in 2000 and the current housing meltdown.  When he talks, savvy people listen.
    His comments are more bad news, of course, for those who own homes they want to sell in the near future, and particularly rough on those psychologically bound to what their homes were worth three years ago.  If Professor Shiller and

Just how long will baby boomers defer their retirement dreams?

other like-minded experts are right about the next few years, it could take a decade or longer for prices to move back to their former lofty levels.  And the longer that baby boomer tsunami holds off selling and moving south, the longer the crisis will last. This has been my overriding question for the last two years:  Just how long is this generation going to defer its retirement dreams?
    Another year or two may be too long for some.  Take the example of the purely invented George and Martha Jones.  They purchased their home in the suburbs of Boston, MA, 20 years ago and raised their two kids there (George worked in the city, Martha stayed home to be with the kids full time).  Their favorite vacations were in the Orlando area, and they have been planning to retire there for the last six years.  George will retire this July with a nice pension and a fair number of unexercised stock options in a company whose share price has increased over his two decades on the job.  They bought their home in 1988 for $200,000 and, at the height of the market three years ago, had it appraised for almost $750,000.  
    Last week, a neighbor who was forced for personal reasons to relocate sold a home similar to the Jones' for $625,000.  A local real estate friend told Martha and George their home would fetch about the same price.  They were appalled at the estimate but heartened that the supply of homes in Boston is currently only seven months (true figure).  On the other hand, prices in the area have dropped more than 8% (also true) in the last year.  In addition, according to Moodys, employment prospects in the Boston area for the next two years are "very weak" which, of course, will affect home prices.
    The housing market in Orlando is even worse, with prices having plummeted 19% since last year and a 21-month supply of unsold homes indicating it might get worse.  The employment outlook for Orlando, according to Moodys, is just "average," which is a good sign (bless you Disney World). Median prices for homes in Orlando are much lower than in Boston, and the Joneses could find themselves a darn nice house for $600,000.  So, with their kids off on their own and a net from their home of more than $400,000, what do the Jones' have to gain by waiting any longer to sell their home and move to Orlando?
    Nothing, really.  True, Orlando prices could continue to drop, and the Joneses may be able to pick up a home there in a few years for a lot less than they can today.  But the value of their home in Boston will continue to erode as well, and maybe more than Orlando real estate if those high-tech companies along Massachusetts' Route 110 continue to lay off employees or if the Jones' baby boomer neighbors decide they are happy with the few hundred thousand dollars gain from the sale of their homes.  That would put even more homes on the market.
    There is no reliable way to time the housing market from a financial standpoint.  Those who can get past what their homes were worth just a few years ago, get the best possible price in the current market, and move to the place they have been dreaming about for years will emerge from the housing morass with their heads held high and their pocketbooks intact.  Holding out for those mythic prices of 2005 is fool's gold.
    For a related article from the Wall Street Journal online, as well as a chart of 28 major metro markets, click here.  If you do not have a WSJ online account, let me know and I will email the article to you (use contact button at top of page).

 

Quote is from a poem by Langston Hughes.