Has the air gone out of Florida?

    God's Waiting Room has turned into an emergency room. 

    Florida suffered its first net migration loss in 63 years in 2008.  Any fool could see it coming, and this fool -- your editor -- has written about the blindingly obvious over the last few years.  Folks can argue about the beginning

of the slide, but the storm clouds really started gathering over Florida's future when, literally, the storms came.  Since the deadly and devastating Hurricane Andrew in 1992, it seems that Florida has been in the eye of the storms on a continuing basis, resulting in significantly higher insurance premiums for many state residents.  The insurance increases, coupled with the potential damages to life and home, put pressure on home values, and when scared owners began dumping their hurricane alley homes on the market, the value drops accelerated, even before the sub-prime mess.  Miami aside, which is a special case, real estate in Florida was already approaching life support status. 

    The aging of the population in Florida has just accelerated the migration.  Yes, people are leaving God's Waiting Room for their heavenly reward, but many others who are still quite active have had enough of traffic and weather after a decade or more of retirement life in Florida.  Regional and town officials did an awful job of getting ready for the tremendous influx of population from the 1950s on.  Those who might defend them on the basis that no one could see the population wave coming should understand that these are essentially the same officials who turned their towns over to developers to plan all those large communities on both sides of the state's roadways.  Couldn't see it coming?  I don't think so.  These horrendously laid-out roadways in the most popular parts of Florida have made prisoners of planned golf community residents.  Even a simple 4 p.m. trip to the local smorgasbord is an exercise in patience and pollution.  Many have run out of patience. 

    Florida's weather has not changed much over recent decades, but those who came to the Sunshine State to avoid snowfall and cold have become

exhausted by the unrelenting heat from May through September.  This is why if you check out the license plates during the summer in the mountains of North Carolina, you get the impression that you are in Florida.  Mountain real estate agents say their best traffic is from Florida.  Floridians who can afford only one home, or choose to live in only one year round, are choosing the Carolinas.

    There are dozens of other reasons people are leaving the state, and one web site I stumbled on has captured some of them in macabre and occasionally disdainful tones.  "I blame the elderly for dying off in droves," wrote one.  Another blames the "alarming rise in the Python population" in the Florida swaps.  Some, of course, blame the sitting President and still others who blame his predecessor.

    You won't find many people waving the flag for Florida at the moment, and some residents are fearful that the state's leaders may have no choice, in

the face of the emigration, but to levy a state income tax.  That, some argue, could pull the plug on the state's fragile life support system. 

    But many savvy investors and bargain hunters make money in strong bear markets.  Florida is the consummate contrarian play.  If the doomsayers are wrong, some brassy folks are going to make a lot of money, and some who just want to find a home in a nice community will have many to choose from at ridiculously low prices.  They will still have that great weather at least eight months a year, making the slog through traffic to get to the late afternoon buffet a little more tolerable.   

    In most groups overcome with hyperventilation, someone sees opportunity amid the problems.  The lone Florida supporter at the web site I visited avoided pointing the finger and looked at the opportunity.  "I blame no one (for the exodus)," he wrote, "and give thanks.  I may move back one day."

    He may have company if prices drop any more.

 

Note:  The referenced web site is Fark.com, which will be a bit scatological for some tastes.  I just stumbled upon it doing a search about Florida.  I don't intend to be a regular visitor, but if you must, here is the link to the comments about Florida's loss of population.