Quote of the Day: Pollyanna turns a little scary

    “The rapid shift in January to frigid air in much of the country had a cooling affect on home shopping that went beyond normal seasonal factors...Weather disruptions have continued since.  We are seeing temporary near-term weather disruptions in much of the country, but there is an underlying pattern of stabilization in the housing market.  As a result of these weather disruptions, it may take a couple months for the picture to fully clarify, but a modest recovery is likely.  Housing remains a great long-term investment.”   -- David Lereah, chief economist, National Association of Realtors, in an NAR press release.

    Economists and meteorologists share a common trait:  They predict, then they explain why their predictions were wrong, then they predict again...and on and on.  Lereah has been predicting the imminent return of the housing market month after month after month.   To him, there is never anything inherently wrong with the housing market; not over-speculation, not too many realtors chasing too few buyers, not some agents' pandering to homeowners' lust to get the highest possible price for their homes.   No, it is the weather's fault, as if people who are looking for a home don't own warm coats. 
    Lereah is at his blindingly obvious best when he says, "Housing remains a great long-term investment"; to extend the weather metaphor, that is almost like saying the sun will come up tomorrow.  However, if a shill like Lereah, who always predicts happy days just around the corner, is now saying it may take "a couple of months" before we know about the market's status, then we should be afraid.  Very afraid.