Silver lining in declining home prices

: May 10, 2011

Home prices in the U.S. will stabilize in the third quarter of this year, according to Wisconsin-based information and technology firm FISERV, a prediction supported by another information provider, Moody’s Analytics.

“As confidence rises, the decline in home sales that started in 2006 will, finally, come to an end,” said FISERV Chief Economist David Stiff in an article at DSMNews online.

We always like to apply a healthy dose of skepticism to whatever

Myrtle Beach job increases in March were the strongest since December 2006.

economists (and meteorologists) predict, but in this case, evidence and logic seem to support the FISERV conclusion. Positive consumer sentiment has begun inching up and, although the national unemployment rate rose slightly in Friday’s report, new private sector job creation was strong. The FISERV report indicates that home prices have now fallen to a level at which home affordability has reached pre-housing bubble marks across most of the 375 markets the service follows.

Separately, an initial conversation we had today with Local Market Monitor reinforced the notion that some markets favored by retiring baby boomers are on the mend. Local Market Monitor compiles and analyzes census data for 315 metro markets in the U.S. and, based on the data, makes predictions about residential housing price appreciations. Some of their numbers are surprising and heartening for those contemplating moves to specific southern golf destinations. For example, job growth in Myrtle Beach increased 5.5% in the 12 months ending in March and was especially strong since October 2010. Job increases in March were the strongest since December 2006. From 2006 through 2009, Myrtle Beach’s population grew at a rate of 8% compared with a “normal” population growth range, according to Local Market Monitor, of -1% to 4%. The positive momentum in jobs and population leads LMM to predict an average price appreciation in Myrtle Beach of 7% from 2013 to 2014.

Other popular southern golf markets that should see decent price appreciations beginning in three years, according to LMM, include Wilmington, Raleigh, Charlotte, and Huntsville, AL. [Note to readers: I am currently discussing with Local Market Monitor an offer of a special discount rate to readers of Golf Community Reviews; LMM offers single-market one-time reports, annual access to individual markets, and subscriptions for all 315 markets. Stay tuned.]

Homes inside the gates of Wachesaw Plantation and other Myrtle Beach area golf communities could begin to see positive price appreciations beginning as early as 3Q of this year.