Sub-60 golf scores, baseball perfection will return to the mean

        The two PGA tournament scores of 59 this year by Paul Goydos and, on Sunday, Stuart Appleby at The Greenbrier Classic generated the expected commentary about modern golf equipment making the game too easy.  But Appleby, at an average of 283 yards per drive, ranks 69th on tour in terms of distance, and Goydos, at 270 yards per, is near the bottom at 183rd.  It is not as if they are hitting nine iron or wedge to every green.  It’s not the golf clubs, although some speculate the distance and spin properties of the modern golf ball may have more to do with the low scores.

        What is it then?  Some believe this may be a watershed moment for golf.  All sports have magic barriers that cannot be broken –- until, of course, they are.  One theory holds that golf may have reached its “four-minute mile moment.”  At one time, no one thought the

Sometimes those who break barriers in sports are not exactly household names.

four-minute mile barrier could be broken in a foot race, but in 1954, Roger Bannister, about as well known in his time as Paul Goydos is in ours, did it in Oxford, England.  From there, four-minute miles became commonplace.  It wasn’t the equipment, since today some runners break four minutes without running shoes on.

        Golf is not the only professional sport this year that has seen barriers fall hard.  Witness the two perfect games in baseball, by Roy Halladay and Dallas Braden, the latter even less a luminary in his sport than either Goydos or Bannister.  (Note:  Armando Gallaraga, also not exactly a household name, pitched a third perfect game of the year but was denied his historic moment by a blown call by the first base umpire on the very last play of the game.)  In the post-1900 era of baseball, no two perfect games have been tossed in a single season, let alone three, before 2010.

         So, should we expect more baseball perfection and sub-60 scores in professional golf competitions this year and into the future?  The betting here is that the cluster of these achievements is an anomaly not unlike flipping a coin 10 times and having heads or tails come up nine times.  On the next 10 flips, you will have an entirely different result.  Nothing last year in either golf or baseball prepared us for this year, and this year is no preparation for a trend next year and beyond.  By this time in 2011, the barriers will be back up.

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